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Boca Juniors – Central Cordoba SdE3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Boca Juniors
2.07
Total xG
2.87
Central Cordoba SdE
0.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Boca Juniors | Central Cordoba SdE |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | +1.30 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.55 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Miguel Merentiel on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Santiago Ascacíbar on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Tomás Aranda not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 76% of goal output missing (only 38% available) | ||
| Michael Santos not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Horacio Tijanovich on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 43% of goal output missing (only 68% available) |
Key factors
- Severe squad impact for Boca Juniors with only 38% of their usual goal threat available due to the absence of Miguel Merentiel, Santiago Ascacíbar, and Tomás Aranda
- Higher offensive threat from Boca Juniors who averaged 5.0 shots on target compared to 3.0 for the visitors in recent matches
- Mathematical advantage for Boca Juniors with a calculated home win probability of 66%
Risks
- Weakening of the visitors' attack due to the absence of Michael Santos, leaving only 68% of their goal threat available
- Defensive vulnerability of Central Cordoba SdE with an average of 2.67 goals conceded per away game
- Declining efficiency for Boca Juniors, whose goal scoring recently dropped to 1.2 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.4
All probabilities
Result
Boca Juniors66%
Draw22%
Central Cordoba SdE12%
Double chance
Boca Juniors or draw88%
Central Cordoba SdE or draw34%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Central Cordoba SdE: opponent scores first in 9 of 10 games (90%)
- Boca Juniors: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Huracán: 2 goals (87', 116')
- Boca Juniors: 7 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Central Cordoba SdE: 56% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 9)
Lineups
Boca Juniors 4-2-3-1 · Central Cordoba SdE 4-4-2
Boca Juniors
- 12 L. Brey
- 24 D. Gorosito
- 4 J. Figal
- 26 M. Pellegrino
- 3 L. Blanco
- 8 T. Belmonte
- 15 W. Alarcón Cepeda
- 11 Á. Romero Villamayor
- 7 C. Palacios Núñez
- 22 S. Villa Cano
- 13 E. Valencia Lastra
Central Cordoba SdE
- 1 A. Aguerre
- 33 A. Moyano
- 2 A. Maciel
- 6 Z. Mansilla
- 23 J. Cáceres Ovelar
- 20 F. Martínez Sánchez
- 22 M. Vera
- 18 L. González Martínez
- 7 D. Barrera
- 10 M. Iacobellis
- 28 L. Sequeira
Substitutes
- 5 L. Paredes
- 17 L. Lozano Fernández
- 20 A. Velasco
- 9 M. Giménez
- 25 S. Ascacíbar
- 30 J. García
- 16 M. Merentiel Serrano
- 2 L. Di Lollo
- 19 L. Flores
- 42 F. Herrera
- 46 M. Satas
- 44 R. Bacidalupe
- 19 E. Naya
- 29 J. Flores
- 55 J. Cardozo López
- 25 J. Vallejos
- 17 Y. Casermeiro
- 11 H. Tijanovich
- 3 L. Marchi Rivero
- 5 T. Cravero
- 9 L. Varaldo
- 30 F. Ariel Rodriguez Salomon
- 21 F. Aguilar Mendoza
- 47 M. Cuitiño
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