đŸ‡ŠđŸ‡·

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Boca Juniors - Central Cordoba SdE

09/12/2026, 12:30 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Boca Juniors
2.1
Total xG
2.9
Central Cordoba SdE
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
BJCCS

Boca Juniors

Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+1.30
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Miguel Merentiel  on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists)
Santiago AscacĂ­bar on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
TomĂĄs Aranda not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
76% of goal output missing (only 38% available)

Central Cordoba SdE

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.55
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.04
Michael Santos not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists)
Horacio Tijanovich on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 68% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Central Cordoba SdE: opponent scores first in 9 of 10 games (90%)

  • 2
    Boca Juniors: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against HuracĂĄn: 2 goals (87', 116')

  • 3
    Boca Juniors: 7 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Central Cordoba SdE: 56% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 9)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

22%

Away Win

12%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

88%

Away or Draw

34%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad impact for Boca Juniors with only 38% of their usual goal threat available due to the absence of Miguel Merentiel, Santiago AscacĂ­bar, and TomĂĄs Aranda
  • Higher offensive threat from Boca Juniors who averaged 5.0 shots on target compared to 3.0 for the visitors in recent matches
  • Mathematical advantage for Boca Juniors with a calculated home win probability of 66%
Risk Factors
  • Weakening of the visitors' attack due to the absence of Michael Santos, leaving only 68% of their goal threat available
  • Defensive vulnerability of Central Cordoba SdE with an average of 2.67 goals conceded per away game
  • Declining efficiency for Boca Juniors, whose goal scoring recently dropped to 1.2 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.4
Overview

Boca Juniors (2nd place, 30 points) host Central Cordoba SdE (12th place, 16 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on September 12, 2026, 12:30 AM

Boca Juniors enter as clear favorites in this home fixture

Form

Boca Juniors are unbeaten in their last 5 matches with form DDDWD

They recorded 1 win and 4 draws in their recent fixtures

Central Cordoba SdE show a form of WLLDL with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Statistics

Boca Juniors average 1.32 goals scored and concede only 0.7 goals per home match

Central Cordoba SdE average a meager 0.63 goals and failed to score in 14 matches

On the road Central Cordoba concede an extremely high average of 2.67 goals

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches Boca Juniors secured 3 wins and 1 draw

The last meeting ended in a 2-1 victory for Boca Juniors on May 2, 2026

The home team clearly dominates the historical record with 11:5 goals

Key Players

Lautaro Blanco (defense, rating 7.06), TomĂĄs Belmonte (1 goal, 1 assist in 3 games), and SebastiĂĄn Villa lead Boca Juniors

Diego Barrera (3 goals), Alejandro Maciel (rating 7.06), and Facundo Mansilla are key for the visitors

Goalkeepers

Leandro Brey starts in goal for Boca Juniors (11 clean sheets this season)

Alan Aguerre guards the net for the visitors with a strong average rating of 7.19 and 8 clean sheets

Influences

At Estadio Alberto José Armando matches average 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the home games played here alongside Boca's strong home defense

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.