Match report →
Argentinos Juniors – Gimnasia La Plata1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Argentinos Juniors
1.74
Total xG
2.58
Gimnasia La Plata
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Argentinos Juniors | Gimnasia La Plata |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.59x league average) | +0.82 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Alan Lescano not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Not nominated for the home side: Alan Lescano with 5 season goals
- Argentinos Juniors averaged a dominant 63.4% possession in recent matches
- The mathematical model predicts a home win with a probability of 57%
Risks
- Gimnasia La Plata concedes an average of 1.73 goals per away match
- Argentinos Juniors' goal production is currently stalling at 1.3 goals compared to their season average of 1.4
All probabilities
Result
Argentinos Juniors57%
Draw26%
Gimnasia La Plata17%
Double chance
Argentinos Juniors or draw83%
Gimnasia La Plata or draw43%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia La Plata: 3.2 cards per game (35 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Argentinos Juniors 4-3-1-2 · Gimnasia La Plata 4-2-3-1
Argentinos Juniors
- 25 B. Cortés Fernández
- 22 K. Coronel Alarcón
- 16 F. Álvarez
- 6 F. Vázquez
- 20 S. Prieto
- 10 C. Florentín
- 15 K. Gutiérrez
- 11 N. Oroz
- 8 H. López Muñoz
- 27 T. Molina
- 9 G. Verón
Gimnasia La Plata
- 23 N. Insfrán
- 31 B. Barros Schelotto
- 13 G. Conti
- 21 E. Martínez Suárez
- 24 P. Silva Torrejón
- 5 J. Miramon
- 18 M. Seoane
- 9 M. Zalazar
- 8 I. Fernández
- 17 L. Janson
- 29 A. Auzmendi
Substitutes
- 30 A. Núñez Duarte
- 48 F. Jainikoski
- 17 F. Paredes
- 19 M. Giménez Rojas
- 12 G. Siri Payer
- 32 G. Infantino
- 26 C. Bravo
- 7 D. Rodrigo Porcel
- 4 E. Godoy
- 29 E. Viveros Mereles
- 5 Facundo Carrizo
- 19 R. Colazo
- 4 R. Giampaoli
- 22 M. Melluso
- 27 J. Kadijevic
- 10 N. Barros Schelotto
- 16 A. Max
- 25 A. Steimbach
- 32 L. Torres
- 20 J. Pérez Suaza
- 7 M. Panaro
- 26 F. Torres
- 33 P. Aguiar
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