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Talleres Córdoba – Unión Santa Fe2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Talleres Córdoba
1.18
Total xG
2.57
Unión Santa Fe
1.39
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Talleres Córdoba | Unión Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.10 | |
| Timoteo Chamorro on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Cristian Tarragona not in squad (14 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 38% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form advantage for the visitors: Unión Santa Fe enters the match on a 3-game winning streak while Talleres is winless in 5
- Tactical efficiency: Unión Santa Fe is currently scoring more frequently (2.2 goals per game) than their season average of 1.71
- Away defense vs home attack: Unión Santa Fe concedes 1.85 goals on average away, while Talleres' scoring rate has slowed down to 0.8 goals recently
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Unión Santa Fe has had only 4 days of rest since their last match compared to 7 days for Talleres Córdoba
- Vulnerable away defense: Unión Santa Fe has kept zero clean sheets in their 13 away matches this season
- The statistical model expects a close encounter with a 30% home win probability and a 40% away win probability
All probabilities
Result
Talleres Córdoba30%
Draw30%
Unión Santa Fe40%
Double chance
Talleres Córdoba or draw60%
Unión Santa Fe or draw70%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Talleres Córdoba: 3.2 cards per game (33 yellows, 5 reds in 12 games)
- Unión Santa Fe: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 21)
- Unión Santa Fe with Brahian David Cuello starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (15/7 games, last 26)
- Unión Santa Fe: 71% of all goals in the second half (15 of 21, last 12 games)
- Talleres Córdoba: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Unión Santa Fe: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Talleres Córdoba 4-2-3-1 · Unión Santa Fe 4-2-3-1
Talleres Córdoba
- 32 L. Unsain
- 20 A. Schott
- 4 M. Catalán
- 6 R. Riquelme
- 23 G. Báez Corradi
- 8 F. Fattori Mouzo
- 15 J. Sforza
- 37 R. Lima Morais
- 19 F. Cristaldo
- 11 V. Depietri
- 9 A. Álvarez Martínez
Unión Santa Fe
- 21 M. Mansilla
- 15 J. Pintado Leines
- 44 T. Fagioli
- 26 J. Ludueña
- 18 L. Ayala
- 5 L. Menossi
- 8 E. Giaccone
- 20 J. Palacios
- 10 V. Malcorra
- 22 B. Cuello
- 19 M. Estigarribia
Substitutes
- 13 V. Fascendini
- 49 V. Dávila
- 7 D. Valoyes Ruíz
- 3 A. Maidana Mendieta
- 2 T. Chamorro
- 36 E. Chiavassa
- 1 S. Barbi
- 10 G. Baroni
- 44 S. Fernández
- 39 L. Fabián Ortiz
- 25 T. Baroni
- 31 B. Trey
- 4 M. Rocha Calderón
- 46 S. Grella
- 31 M. Aguirre
- 12 B. Pittón
- 43 E. Ramírez
- 17 J. Mosqueira
- 11 M. Luna Diale
- 36 M. Aimar
- 34 M. Peresutti
- 38 V. Cerrudo
- 32 N. Fazzi
- 41 A. Chávez
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