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Deportivo Riestra – Lanús0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo Riestra
0.92
Total xG
1.87
Lanús
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo Riestra | Lanús |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Rising form (1 vs 0.7 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Dylan Aquino not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 43% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1 vs 0.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defensive fortress at home: Riestra conceded an average of only 0.33 goals per home game this season
- Missing offensive power for Lanús: Dylan Aquino (6 goals, 2 assists this season) is not nominated, leaving only 76% of their goals share active
- Tactical profile: Riestra averaged only 3.2 shots on target with 31% possession in recent matches
Risks
- Harmless home attack: Deportivo Riestra score an average of only 0.56 goals per home match
- Few offensive actions: Riestra averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo Riestra31%
Draw36%
Lanús33%
Double chance
Deportivo Riestra or draw67%
Lanús or draw69%
No draw64%
Goals
Over 1.558%
Under 1.542%
Over 2.529%
Under 2.571%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Both teams score
Yes39%
No61%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
1:1
15%
0:1
13%
1:0
12%
0:2
7%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lanús: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Lanús: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Yoshan Valois: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Lanús: 50% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (4 of 8)
Lineups
Deportivo Riestra 5-3-2 · Lanús 4-2-3-1
Deportivo Riestra
- 1 I. Arce
- 36 M. Bracamonte
- 15 N. Sansotre
- 22 C. Paz
- 2 C. Quintana
- 5 P. Ramírez
- 27 J. Goitía
- 8 M. Céliz
- 7 A. Alonso Espinoza
- 11 A. Díaz
- 9 G. Benegas
Lanús
- 26 N. Losada
- 4 Gonzalo Pérez
- 24 C. Izquierdoz
- 13 J. Canale Domínguez
- 6 S. Marcich
- 5 F. Peña Biafore
- 30 A. Cardozo
- 16 M. Sepúlveda Méndez
- 11 E. Salvio
- 77 L. Besozzi
- 20 A. Wlk Dure
Substitutes
- 21 T. González
- 16 N. Watson
- 40 G. Obredor
- 35 Á. Stringa
- 14 P. Monje
- 13 R. Gallo
- 4 Y. Murillo Mena
- 18 B. Pérez
- 20 T. Lauro
- 23 M. Arzamendia Espinoza
- 29 M. Graneros
- 17 ?. Almada
- 35 R. Dejesús López
- 27 F. Sánchez
- 1 F. Petroli
- 19 Y. Valois Murillo
- 33 T. Guidara
- 8 F. Watson
- 3 N. Morgantini
- 17 D. Medina
- 38 B. Acosta
- 39 T. Laplace
- 40 T. López
- 42 G. Lobos
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