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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Deportivo Riestra - Lanús

09/14/2026, 10:00 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Deportivo Riestra
0.9
Total xG
1.9
Lanús
1.0
Most Likely Scores

0:0

17%

1:1

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

12%

0:2

7%
What influences the xG?
DRLAN

Deportivo Riestra

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap)
-0.09
Rising form (1 vs 0.7 season average)
+0.08
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
+0.02
Strong home record (1 vs 0.7 goals/match)

Lanús

Attack strength (1.26x league average)
-0.05
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap)
+0.04
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01
Dylan Aquino not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.40
-0.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lanús: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)

  • 2
    Lanús: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Yoshan Valois: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Lanús: 50% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (4 of 8)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

36%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

58%

Under 1.5

42%

Over 2.5

29%

Under 2.5

71%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

64%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • Defensive fortress at home: Riestra conceded an average of only 0.33 goals per home game this season
  • Missing offensive power for Lanús: Dylan Aquino (6 goals, 2 assists this season) is not nominated, leaving only 76% of their goals share active
  • Tactical profile: Riestra averaged only 3.2 shots on target with 31% possession in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Harmless home attack: Deportivo Riestra score an average of only 0.56 goals per home match
  • Few offensive actions: Riestra averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Deportivo Riestra (15th place, 11 points) host Lanús (6th place, 24 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on September 14, 2026, 11:00 PM

Lanús fight to stay close to the top group while Riestra remain near the bottom of the table

The mathematical analysis predicts a tight contest with a draw probability of 36%

Form

Form of Deportivo Riestra: WLDDD

Form of Lanús: WLDLW

Riestra recently recorded three consecutive draws

Lanús comes off a 1-0 win against Defensa y Justicia in their last match

Riestra recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games

Lanús registered 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches

Statistics

Deportivo Riestra average 0.54 goals scored and 0.79 goals conceded per season

Riestra's home record shows only 6 goals conceded in 18 home games

Lanús average 1.04 goals scored and 1.00 goals conceded per match

In away matches Lanús concede an average of 1.15 goals while scoring 1.00

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in history

Deportivo Riestra recorded 3 wins, while Lanús have not won a match yet

One match ended in a draw

The last meeting on May 2, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw

Key Players

Antony Alonso leads Riestra's attack with 4 goals this season

Milton Céliz stands out with an average rating of 6.98

Alexander Díaz has contributed 2 goals so far this season

Carlos Izquierdoz is the highest-rated defender for Lanús at 7.17

Sasha Marcich impresses with a 6.89 rating in 24 appearances

Felipe Peña Biafore has scored 2 goals this season for Lanús

Not nominated for Lanús: Dylan Aquino with 6 goals and 2 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Ignacio Arce plays in goal for Riestra and holds a strong season rating of 7.18

Nahuel Losada guards the net for Lanús with an average rating of 7.06

Both goalkeepers recorded an average rating of 6.90 over their last 5 appearances

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Guillermo Laza

The stadium statistics show an average of only 2.0 goals per match

There was a BTTS rate of only 20% in Riestra's last 5 home games

Riestra's home defensive strength with only 6 goals conceded in 18 home matches is a key factor

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