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Instituto – Estudiantes de Río Cuarto2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Instituto
1.94
Total xG
2.49
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Instituto | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | +1.16 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.73 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.39 | −0.39 |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap) | −0.04 | |
| Rising form (0.5 vs 0.4 season average) | +0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Matías Gallardo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 69%
- Home and away records: Instituto concedes only 0.64 goals per home game while the visitors allow 2.22 goals away
- Tactical finishing weakness: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averaged only 2.0 shots on target per match in recent games
Risks
- Massive away weakness of Estudiantes de Río Cuarto with 2.22 goals conceded per away match
- Very low goal threat from the visitors with only 0.33 away goals scored per game
All probabilities
Result
Instituto69%
Draw22%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto9%
Double chance
Instituto or draw91%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw31%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes38%
No62%
Most likely scores
2:0
16%
1:0
15%
1:1
10%
3:0
10%
0:0
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Instituto: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Instituto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 11 total)
- Instituto: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (4 of 10 total)
Lineups
Instituto 3-4-2-1 · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 3-1-4-2
Instituto
- 29 M. Ledesma
- 30 J. Galván
- 26 L. Mosevich
- 6 F. Alarcón
- 44 G. Cerato
- 55 G. Abregú
- 13 J. Méndez
- 3 D. Sosa
- 21 J. Lázaro
- 10 A. Luna
- 17 M. Tissera
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- 1 L. Bruera
- 6 J. Antonini
- 2 G. Maffini
- 31 M. Valenti
- 5 A. Cabrera
- 45 R. Lozano
- 10 T. González
- 17 G. Alanís
- 23 F. Rodríguez
- 22 M. Valiente
- 77 I. Hesar
Substitutes
- 19 L. Sanseviero
- 7 N. Guerra
- 2 H. De La Fuente
- 20 J. Córdoba Mosquera
- 9 F. Suárez
- 11 M. Fonseca
- 22 A. Massaccesi
- 32 A. Bravo
- 8 H. Acevedo
- 35 E. Sittaro Miranda
- 14 W. Viera Caballero
- 23 J. Meli
- 29 A. Quiroga
- 8 S. Rosane
- 43 A. Lastra
- 28 F. Cobos
- 9 J. Ferreira
- 32 M. Bajamich
- 11 M. Garnerone
- 14 G. Gonzalez
- 3 L. Baños
- 18 J. Rivero
- 99 J. Chala Castillo
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