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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Instituto - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

09/15/2026, 12:15 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Instituto
1.9
Total xG
2.5
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.6
Most Likely Scores

2:0

16%

1:0

15%

1:1

10%

3:0

10%

0:0

9%
What influences the xG?
INSEDRC

Instituto

Attack strength (1.25x league average)
+1.16
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.23
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap)
+0.06
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.03
Matías Gallardo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.73
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap)
-0.04
Rising form (0.5 vs 0.4 season average)
+0.03
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.39
-0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Instituto: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)

  • 2
    Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)

  • 3
    Instituto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 11 total)

  • 4
    Instituto: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (4 of 10 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

69%

Draw

22%

Away Win

9%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

91%

Away or Draw

31%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 69%
  • Home and away records: Instituto concedes only 0.64 goals per home game while the visitors allow 2.22 goals away
  • Tactical finishing weakness: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averaged only 2.0 shots on target per match in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Massive away weakness of Estudiantes de Río Cuarto with 2.22 goals conceded per away match
  • Very low goal threat from the visitors with only 0.33 away goals scored per game
Overview

Instituto (9th place, 21 points) host Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (15th place, 5 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on September 15, 2026, 12:15 AM

Clear matchup between the mid-table and the bottom of the league

Form

Instituto with a form of WWDWL in all competitions

Last match ended in a loss

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto with a form of LLDDL in all competitions

Both teams lost their respective last match

Statistics

Instituto scores an average of 1.04 goals per match and concedes 0.92

Strong home defense with only 0.64 goals conceded per home game

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scores only 0.33 goals per away match

The visitors concede an average of 2.22 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

Only 1 head-to-head match between these teams so far

That single meeting ended in a 2-0 victory for Instituto

Key Players

Alex Luna with 6 goals and 3 assists in midfield for Instituto

Giuliano Cerato has already scored 4 goals as a defender for Instituto

Leonel Mosevich solid in defense with a 6.87 rating

Goalkeepers

Marcos Ledesma starts in goal for Instituto with a rating of 6.80

Lucas Bruera guards the net for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto with a rating of 6.94

Instituto recorded 9 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estadio Presidente Juan Domingo Perón

Strong home defense of Instituto meets the weak away form of the visitors

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