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Sarmiento – Belgrano1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Sarmiento
1.31
Total xG
2.40
Belgrano
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sarmiento | Belgrano |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.39 | −0.39 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Lucas Passerini on the bench (1 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Francisco González Metilli on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Adrián Sánchez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Offensive trend: Sarmiento currently scores more frequently, averaging 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.2
- Tactical contrast: Sarmiento recently played counter-oriented with an average of 37% possession, while Belgrano was dominant with 57% possession
- Strong home defense: Sarmiento concedes only 0.67 goals per game on average at their own stadium
Risks
- Solid opponent defense: Belgrano kept 14 clean sheets in 28 matches, conceding only 0.75 goals on average
- Squad impact: Belgrano has key players not nominated, including Lucas Passerini, Francisco González Metilli, and Adrián Sánchez
- Historical barrier: Sarmiento has failed to score a single goal against Belgrano in their last 2 meetings
All probabilities
Result
Sarmiento40%
Draw31%
Belgrano29%
Double chance
Sarmiento or draw71%
Belgrano or draw60%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
2:1
8%
0:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Belgrano: 6 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Belgrano: 80% of all goals in the second half (12 of 15, last 12 games)
- Belgrano: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against River Plate: 2 goals (85', 88')
- Belgrano: 2.8 cards per game (30 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Sarmiento 4-4-2 · Belgrano 4-2-3-1
Sarmiento
- 12 T. Ayala
- 8 S. Salle
- 44 R. Orihuela Barcos
- 2 J. Insaurralde
- 77 N. Pasquini
- 19 J. Contrera
- 15 C. Zabala
- 16 M. Martínez
- 21 J. Mavilla
- 24 J. Herrera
- 27 J. Marabel Jara
Belgrano
- 25 T. Cardozo Brugman
- 26 A. Benítez Cabrera
- 14 L. Morales
- 17 L. López
- 16 F. Ricca Rostagnol
- 5 S. Longo
- 20 F. Vázquez
- 24 E. Rigoni
- 10 L. Zelarayán
- 8 R. Hernandes
- 22 N. Fernández
Substitutes
- 10 J. Rentería Arias
- 29 T. Santamaría
- 6 G. Arturia
- 7 P. Magnín
- 11 G. González
- 9 D. Churín
- 33 G. Díaz
- 5 M. García
- 20 U. Giménez
- 23 E. Giménez
- 1 I. Arboleda
- 17 A. Nadruz Blanco
- 30 G. Zelarayán
- 37 L. Gutierrez
- 9 L. Passerini
- 2 A. Maldonado
- 53 J. Velazquez
- 11 F. González Metilli
- 3 A. Sporle
- 23 M. Vicentini
- 4 Agustín Griguol
- 19 S. Gatti
- 58 A. Bono
- 59 J. Flandes
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