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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Sarmiento - Belgrano

09/13/2026, 05:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Sarmiento
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Belgrano
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

2:1

8%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SARBEL

Sarmiento

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15

Belgrano

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Lucas Passerini  on the bench (1 goals, 7 assists)
Francisco González Metilli on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Adrián Sánchez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.39
-0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Belgrano: 6 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Belgrano: 80% of all goals in the second half (12 of 15, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Belgrano: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against River Plate: 2 goals (85', 88')

  • 4
    Belgrano: 2.8 cards per game (30 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

31%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Offensive trend: Sarmiento currently scores more frequently, averaging 1.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.2
  • Tactical contrast: Sarmiento recently played counter-oriented with an average of 37% possession, while Belgrano was dominant with 57% possession
  • Strong home defense: Sarmiento concedes only 0.67 goals per game on average at their own stadium
Risk Factors
  • Solid opponent defense: Belgrano kept 14 clean sheets in 28 matches, conceding only 0.75 goals on average
  • Squad impact: Belgrano has key players not nominated, including Lucas Passerini, Francisco González Metilli, and Adrián Sánchez
  • Historical barrier: Sarmiento has failed to score a single goal against Belgrano in their last 2 meetings
Overview

Sarmiento hosts Belgrano at the Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on September 13, 2026, 5:45 PM

Sarmiento (9th place, 19 points) faces Belgrano (4th place, 24 points)

The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 40% and a draw probability of 31%

Form

Sarmiento is in strong form with 4 wins and 1 loss from the last 5 matches

Form string: WWWLW

Belgrano recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss recently

Form string: WWLDD

Sarmiento enters the match with momentum after a 2-0 win against Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Statistics

Sarmiento scores 1.13 goals on average at home while conceding just 0.67

Belgrano concedes exactly 1.00 goal per away game on average

Sarmiento shows a strong home defense with 7 clean sheets in 15 home matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sarmiento recorded no wins

Belgrano won the last game clearly with 4-0 on May 3, 2026

Sarmiento is still waiting for their first goal against Belgrano in this matchup

Key Players

Junior Marabel leads Sarmiento with 11 season goals and 4 assists

Julián Mavilla shines in midfield with an average rating of 7.44

For Belgrano, Nicolás Fernández is key in attack with 6 goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Thyago Ayala guards Sarmiento's goal with a strong rating of 7.27 in 6 games

Thiago Cardozo has played 27 matches for Belgrano, maintaining a rating of 7.06

Influences

Matches at the Estadio Eva Perón de Junín average 2.6 goals per game

Sarmiento's home advantage is backed by conceding only 10 goals in 15 home matches

The game will be played on natural grass

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