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Huracán – Racing Club2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Huracán
1.52
Total xG
2.50
Racing Club
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Huracán | Racing Club |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.45 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Leonardo Gil on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Tomás Conechny on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Matko Miljevic on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Form discrepancy: Huracán remained unbeaten in four of their last five matches while Racing Club suffered four defeats
- Missing squad impact: Racing Club must cope without key players Tomás Conechny and Matko Miljevic leaving only 86% of their usual attacking threat
- Tactical metric: Huracán averaged a dominant 59.2% possession in recent matches
Risks
- Stuttering attack: Huracán currently average 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.3
- Low offensive output: Huracán averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Huracán48%
Draw29%
Racing Club23%
Double chance
Huracán or draw77%
Racing Club or draw52%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Racing Club: 3.3 cards per game (36 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Racing Club: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (10 points lost)
- Huracán: 3 cards per game (30 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
Huracán 4-2-3-1 · Racing Club 4-1-3-2
Huracán
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 2 L. Blondel
- 6 F. Pereyra
- 35 M. Palazzo
- 25 C. Ibáñez
- 15 F. Waller Martiarena
- 5 R. Fernández Cedrés
- 7 O. Cortés Cortés
- 17 J. Bisanz
- 24 F. Kalinger di Napoli
- 9 J. Caicedo Medina
Racing Club
- 25 F. Cambeses
- 4 E. Cannavo
- 2 M. Pérez
- 6 F. Rojo
- 19 I. Rodríguez
- 33 L. Pérez
- 11 F. Zaracho
- 16 D. Ortegoza
- 20 G. Lodico
- 32 L. Díaz
- 9 A. Martínez
Substitutes
- 4 F. Vera
- 20 P. Ojeda
- 8 L. Gil
- 11 T. Peralta Ortiz
- 10 Ó. Romero Villamayor
- 21 H. Nervo
- 34 I. Campo
- 32 S. Meza
- 19 L. Lescano
- 33 B. Barticciotto
- 41 L. Mora
- 51 M. Soto
- 18 L. Espino García
- 10 M. Miljevic
- 14 J. Barinaga
- 17 T. Conechny
- 43 G. Escudero
- 30 M. Tagliamonte
- 7 D. Vergara Hernández
- 22 E. Torres
- 24 A. Fernández
- 46 A. Tello
- 5 C. Kranevitter
- 38 M. Martínez
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