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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Newell's Old Boys - Vélez Sarsfield

09/11/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Newell's Old Boys
0.8
Total xG
2.0
Vélez Sarsfield
1.2
Most Likely Scores

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

0:1

15%

0:2

10%

1:0

9%
What influences the xG?
NOBVS

Newell's Old Boys

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.37
Rising form (1.5 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.03
Ignacio Ramírez on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)

Vélez Sarsfield

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
-0.08
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.06
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
Matías Pellegrini not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Dilan Godoy on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 64% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.41
-0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 11 total)

  • 2
    Newell's Old Boys with Walter Mazzantti starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (15/8 games, last 24)

  • 3
    Newell's Old Boys: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Newell's Old Boys: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)

  • 5
    Vélez Sarsfield: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

23%

Draw

34%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

60%

Under 1.5

40%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

77%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Vélez Sarsfield enter as favorites with a calculated 43% win probability according to the mathematical model
  • The rock-solid defense of Vélez concedes an average of only 0.79 goals per away match this season
  • Newell's Old Boys averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent fixtures
Risk Factors
  • Matías Pellegrini and Dilan Godoy are missing for Vélez, leaving only 65% of the seasonal goal threat active
  • Newell's Old Boys exhibit home offensive weakness with an average of just 1.0 home goal scored per game
  • Newell's have failed to secure a home victory in head-to-head matches against Vélez over the last two years
Overview

Newell's Old Boys host Vélez Sarsfield at the Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on September 11, 2026, 10:00 PM

Newell's sit in 14th place with 15 points, while the visitors are in 3rd place with 28 points

An intense clash between the league's top-tier side and the struggling hosts

Form

Newell's recent form is "LWWDD" with two wins and two draws from their last five matches

Vélez Sarsfield are unbeaten in their last five outings with a "DDDDW" record

Both teams earned points in their previous match, with Vélez securing a win and Newell's a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Newell's average 1.0 goal scored and 1.42 goals conceded per match this season

Vélez Sarsfield boast a strong defense, conceding only 0.76 goals per game while scoring 1.16

Newell's home games average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 goal conceded

The visitors concede just 0.79 goals per away match on average

Head-to-Head

In their last two head-to-head encounters, Vélez Sarsfield won once, with the other match ending in a draw

Their most recent direct duel ended in a 1:1 draw on May 4, 2026

Newell's scored two goals overall in these games compared to one goal for Vélez

Key Players

Matías Cóccaro leads Newell's attack with 6 goals and 2 assists this season

Walter Mazzantti has contributed 2 goals and 2 assists for the hosts

Manuel Lanzini dictates Vélez's midfield and has scored 6 goals so far

Goalkeepers

Josué Reinatti guards Newell's goal with a strong season average rating of 7.27

Tomás Marchiori is in goal for Vélez, holding a season rating of 7.11

Both keepers have recorded solid performances with multiple clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Home advantage is key, with Newell's scoring 13 goals in 13 home matches this season

The venue statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per match with a 60% both teams to score rate

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