Match report →
Newell's Old Boys – Vélez Sarsfield1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Newell's Old Boys
0.80
Total xG
1.98
Vélez Sarsfield
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Newell's Old Boys | Vélez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.37 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Ignacio Ramírez on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matías Pellegrini not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Dilan Godoy on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 64% available) |
Key factors
- Vélez Sarsfield enter as favorites with a calculated 43% win probability according to the mathematical model
- The rock-solid defense of Vélez concedes an average of only 0.79 goals per away match this season
- Newell's Old Boys averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent fixtures
Risks
- Matías Pellegrini and Dilan Godoy are missing for Vélez, leaving only 65% of the seasonal goal threat active
- Newell's Old Boys exhibit home offensive weakness with an average of just 1.0 home goal scored per game
- Newell's have failed to secure a home victory in head-to-head matches against Vélez over the last two years
All probabilities
Result
Newell's Old Boys23%
Draw34%
Vélez Sarsfield43%
Double chance
Newell's Old Boys or draw57%
Vélez Sarsfield or draw77%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.560%
Under 1.540%
Over 2.532%
Under 2.568%
Over 3.514%
Under 3.586%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
0:0
16%
1:1
15%
0:1
15%
0:2
10%
1:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 11 total)
- Newell's Old Boys with Walter Mazzantti starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (15/8 games, last 24)
- Newell's Old Boys: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Newell's Old Boys: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Vélez Sarsfield: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1 · Vélez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
Newell's Old Boys
- 30 J. Reinatti Balansino
- 6 M. Ortega
- 17 L. Gianetti
- 16 L. Carrizo
- 28 J. Russo
- 26 R. Herrera
- 5 L. Regiardo
- 7 W. Mazzantti
- 20 F. Guch
- 32 S. Solari
- 9 M. Cóccaro Ferreira
Vélez Sarsfield
- 1 T. Marchiori Carreño
- 4 J. García
- 32 T. Silvero
- 2 E. Mammana
- 3 E. Gómez
- 29 R. Aliendro
- 8 L. Robertone
- 37 J. Policella
- 22 M. Lanzini
- 18 Simón Escobar
- 77 R. Martínez Rolón
Substitutes
- 27 L. Gómez
- 33 W. Núñez
- 25 B. Cabrera
- 19 J. Gómez Mattar
- 8 D. Sotelo
- 22 O. Salomón
- 99 J. Ramírez Polero
- 21 G. Arias Arroyo
- 3 M. Luciano
- 36 F. Scarpeccio
- 39 L.Rios
- 15 A. Soñora
- 23 F. Sanguinetti
- 17 A. Zahir Verón
- 15 D. Godoy
- 35 M. Arias
- 19 L. Cristaldo Florentín
- 16 L. Magallán
- 5 C. Baeza Baeza
- 48 L.Feler
- 47 A. Pereyra
- 30 L. Piola
- 33 T. Villalba
- 46 U. Piedrabuena
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