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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Independiente Rivadavia - Aldosivi

09/12/2026, 05:45 PM

4 : 3
Expected Goals
Independiente Rivadavia
2.2
Total xG
2.8
Aldosivi
0.6
Most Likely Scores

2:0

15%

3:0

11%

1:1

9%

2:1

9%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
IRALD

Independiente Rivadavia

Attack strength (1.73x league average)
+1.47
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 14, 12 places gap)
+0.13
MatĂ­as FernĂĄndez on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Alejo Osella on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Sheyko Studer not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Aldosivi

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.73
Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.34
Rising form (1.5 vs 0.7 season average)
+0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 2, 12 places gap)
-0.08
Alan Sosa not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.41
-0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Aldosivi: dropped a lead in 6 of 6 games (15 points lost)

  • 2
    Álex Arce: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Independiente Rivadavia: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

74%

Draw

19%

Away Win

7%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

93%

Away or Draw

26%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Clear table advantage: Second-placed Independiente Rivadavia faces bottom-placed Aldosivi
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Aldosivi concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away match
  • Independiente Rivadavia averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Aldosivi currently scores more frequently (1.5 goals) than their season average (0.7 goals)
  • Independiente Rivadavia's goal production is currently stalling (1.5) compared to the season average (1.8)
Overview

Independiente Rivadavia (2nd place, 28 points) host Aldosivi (14th place, 7 points) at the Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on September 12, 2026, 6:45 PM

Clear clash between the second-placed team and the second-to-last side

Form

Independiente Rivadavia with form WLDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) and a recent loss to River Plate

Aldosivi with form LDLLW and a win in their last match against Banfield

The hosts secured 2 wins in their last 5 games, while the visitors registered only 1 win

Statistics

Independiente Rivadavia scored 39 goals in 25 season games and conceded 27 times

Aldosivi shows a weak offense with only 14 goals in 24 games while conceding 31 goals

The visitors concede an average of 2.00 goals per away game

The hosts average 1.59 goals scored per home match

Head-to-Head

3 head-to-head matches show a perfectly balanced record

Both teams have secured 1 win each alongside 1 draw

The last encounter on May 3, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Sartori scored 8 season goals in 19 matches

Arce impressed recently with 4 goals in the last 5 games

FlorentĂ­n holds an average season rating of 7.13

Vombergar scored 4 goals in the last 5 appearances for the visitors

FernĂĄndez contributed 2 assists in his last 5 matches

GarcĂ­a records 2 assists on average this season

Goalkeepers

NicolĂĄs Bolcato is in goal for the hosts with an average rating of 6.86

Lucas Acosta guarded the visitors' goal 5 times this season with a 6.68 rating

The home team has recorded 6 clean sheets so far this season

The visitors have managed 5 clean sheets in this campaign

Influences

An average of 3.8 goals were scored in the last 5 matches at the Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

All 5 of these home games ended with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals

The hosts' home advantage is supported by an average of 1.59 home goals per match

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