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Independiente Rivadavia – Aldosivi4 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Independiente Rivadavia
2.24
Total xG
2.84
Aldosivi
0.60
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Independiente Rivadavia | Aldosivi |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.73x league average) | +1.47 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.73 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.34 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 0.7 season average) | +0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 14, 12 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 2, 12 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Matías Fernández on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Alejo Osella on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Sheyko Studer not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Alan Sosa not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Clear table advantage: Second-placed Independiente Rivadavia faces bottom-placed Aldosivi
- Home strength vs away weakness: Aldosivi concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away match
- Independiente Rivadavia averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Aldosivi currently scores more frequently (1.5 goals) than their season average (0.7 goals)
- Independiente Rivadavia's goal production is currently stalling (1.5) compared to the season average (1.8)
All probabilities
Result
Independiente Rivadavia74%
Draw19%
Aldosivi7%
Double chance
Independiente Rivadavia or draw93%
Aldosivi or draw26%
No draw81%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
2:0
15%
3:0
11%
1:1
9%
2:1
9%
3:1
7%
4:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Aldosivi: dropped a lead in 6 of 6 games (15 points lost)
- Álex Arce: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Independiente Rivadavia: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)
Lineups
Independiente Rivadavia 4-3-1-2 · Aldosivi 4-2-3-1
Independiente Rivadavia
- 30 N. Bolcato
- 28 A. Vigo
- 40 I. Villalba Chamorro
- 2 L. Costa Martínez
- 3 J. Elordi
- 11 G. Ríos
- 5 T. Bottari
- 25 J. Florentín Bobadilla
- 43 F. Sartori Prieto
- 17 M. Salas
- 9 A. Arce Barrios
Aldosivi
- 42 L. Acosta
- 14 E. López
- 25 N. Breitenbruch
- 32 J. Pombo
- 38 Mateo Sebastián Vales
- 8 Martín Adolfo García
- 19 L. Nahuel Castro
- 27 T. Fernández
- 10 O. Gaitán
- 24 F. Anso
- 9 N. Cordero
Substitutes
- 13 A. Osella
- 10 M. Fernández
- 21 E. Gómez Riga
- 27 D. Mayans
- 20 A. Riep
- 32 K. Vázquez
- 19 R. Atencio
- 7 V. Ramis
- 8 L. Bucca
- 77 L. Sequeira
- 34 S. Moreyra
- 23 L. Díaz
- 29 A. Vombergar
- 23 I. Chicco
- 7 N. Guzmán
- 33 N. Zalazar
- 4 R. González
- 28 S. Moya
- 16 B. Dadín
- 15 F. Perruzzi
- 21 M. Godoy
- 18 A. Chávez
- 37 P. Argoytia
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