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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Independiente - San Lorenzo

09/13/2026, 10:15 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Independiente
1.2
Total xG
1.9
San Lorenzo
0.7
Most Likely Scores

0:0

17%

1:0

17%

1:1

14%

2:0

11%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
INDSL

Independiente

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.10
Gabriel Ávalos not in squad (11 goals, 5 assists)
Santiago Arias on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

San Lorenzo

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.37
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average)
-0.14
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.40
-0.40
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

34%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

57%

Under 1.5

43%

Over 2.5

28%

Under 2.5

72%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

36%

No

64%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical advantage: The model prediction favors Independiente with a 46% win probability
  • Defensive wall: San Lorenzo concedes only 0.84 goals per match on average this season
  • Possession dominance: Independiente recently controlled matches with an average of 56% possession
Risk Factors
  • Struggling offenses: Goal production is stalling for both teams (recently 1.0 for Independiente, 0.5 for San Lorenzo)
  • Historically low-scoring: The stadium's historical scoring average is only 1.8 goals per match
  • Low scoring probability: The probability for over 2.5 goals is calculated at only 28%
Overview

Independiente (5th place, 24 points) host San Lorenzo (7th place, 22 points)

Match on September 13, 2026, 11:15 PM at the Estadio Libertadores de América

Crucial clash in the upper half of the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Form

Both teams show an identical recent form trend

Last 5 games: LWDLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Both sides recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 outings

Statistics

Independiente scores 1.28 goals and concedes 1.16 goals per match on average

San Lorenzo is defensively stronger with 0.84 conceded goals per game but scores only 0.76 on average

On the road, San Lorenzo concedes exactly 1.00 goal per game

Independiente kept 5 clean sheets in 12 home matches this season

Head-to-Head

A total of 4 direct duels in recent history

Independiente recorded 2 wins and 2 draws

San Lorenzo is winless in these encounters, with a goal difference of 5:3 in favor of Independiente

The last direct meeting ended in a 2:1 victory

Key Players

Independiente relies on MatĂ­as Abaldo (5 goals, 2 assists), Santiago Montiel (3 goals, 3 assists), and Lautaro MillĂĄn (3 goals)

San Lorenzo features Rodrigo Auzmendi (6 goals), Alexis Cuello (5 goals, 3 assists), and defender Danilo Arboleda (7.31 rating)

Not nominated: Gabriel Ávalos (11G/5A), Santiago Arias (0G/2A)

Goalkeepers

Rodrigo Rey starts for Independiente (average rating of 6.81, 8 clean sheets)

José Devecchi starts in goal for San Lorenzo (average rating of 6.84, team has 13 clean sheets)

Influences

The game will be played on grass at the Estadio Libertadores de América

The venue history shows a low scoring rate of 1.8 goals per match on average

Both teams scored in only 20% of previous matches at this stadium

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