Match report →
Independiente – San Lorenzo1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Independiente
1.17
Total xG
1.86
San Lorenzo
0.68
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Independiente | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.37 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Gabriel Ávalos not in squad (11 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Santiago Arias on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical advantage: The model prediction favors Independiente with a 46% win probability
- Defensive wall: San Lorenzo concedes only 0.84 goals per match on average this season
- Possession dominance: Independiente recently controlled matches with an average of 56% possession
Risks
- Struggling offenses: Goal production is stalling for both teams (recently 1.0 for Independiente, 0.5 for San Lorenzo)
- Historically low-scoring: The stadium's historical scoring average is only 1.8 goals per match
- Low scoring probability: The probability for over 2.5 goals is calculated at only 28%
All probabilities
Result
Independiente46%
Draw34%
San Lorenzo20%
Double chance
Independiente or draw80%
San Lorenzo or draw54%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.557%
Under 1.543%
Over 2.528%
Under 2.572%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Both teams score
Yes36%
No64%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
1:0
17%
1:1
14%
2:0
11%
0:1
9%
Lineups
Independiente 4-3-3 · San Lorenzo 3-4-1-2
Independiente
- 33 R. Rey
- 29 L. Godoy
- 13 J. Fedorco
- 35 J. Arrayago
- 22 F. Zavala
- 16 M. Curci
- 23 I. Marcone
- 8 M. Meza
- 7 S. Montiel
- 6 L. Ávila
- 19 M. Abaldo Menyou
San Lorenzo
- 25 J. Devecchi
- 2 D. Arboleda Hurtado
- 16 G. Corujo Bríccola
- 19 E. Amor
- 24 N. Tripichio
- 8 C. Insaurralde
- 5 I. Perruzzi Ambrosini
- 3 T. Rodríguez Pagano
- 38 F. Farías
- 9 A. Cuello
- 29 R. Auzmendi
Substitutes
- 4 S. Arias Naranjo
- 77 S. Mele Castanero
- 14 G. Millán
- 9 I. Morales Bravo
- 24 J. Palais
- 30 T. Parmo
- 34 F.Tempone
- 32 R. Martínez
- 20 F. Cruz
- 2 F. Calderón
- 25 N. Junco
- 10 F. Gulli
- 11 M. Reali
- 32 E. Herrera
- 6 M. De Ritis Serrentino
- 35 A. Cordoba
- 42 F. Lorenzón
- 14 A. Ladstatter
- 13 J. Rattalino
- 20 F. Altamirano
- 30 O. Arias
- 39 U. Ojeda
- 44 E. Salas
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