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Estudiantes – Platense2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Estudiantes
1.76
Total xG
2.87
Platense
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estudiantes | Platense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.75 | |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.58 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.52 | |
| Defensive weakness (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.43 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Alexis Castro on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Tomás Palacios not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ezequiel Piovi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Nicolás Retamar on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 63% available) |
Key factors
- Strong statistical advantage with a 51% calculated home win probability for Estudiantes
- Estudiantes dominated recent matches with an average of 69% possession and 5.2 shots on target
- Platense averaged just 46% possession and 4.6 shots on target in their recent outings
Risks
- Nicolás Retamar is missing for Platense, leaving only 64% of their usual goal threat available
- Estudiantes' goal scoring has stalled lately, averaging 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.3
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Estudiantes51%
Draw26%
Platense23%
Double chance
Estudiantes or draw77%
Platense or draw49%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Platense: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- Platense: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Platense: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 11 total)
- Platense: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
Lineups
Estudiantes 4-2-3-1 · Platense 4-2-3-1
Estudiantes
- 1 F. Iacovich
- 20 E. Meza
- 4 S. Núñez
- 35 V. Pierani
- 13 G. Benedetti Taffarel
- 8 G. Neves Perdomo
- 39 J. Elías
- 29 F. Pérez Escudero
- 7 J. Sosa
- 18 E. Cetré Angulo
- 19 A. Gaich
Platense
- 30 J. Cozzani
- 25 J. Saborido
- 31 V. Cuesta
- 34 M. Mendia
- 3 T. Silva
- 5 I. Gómez
- 15 F. Amarfil
- 16 G. Togni
- 7 G. Mainero
- 10 F. Zapiola
- 99 G. Lencina
Substitutes
- 9 G. Carrillo
- 14 L. González Pírez
- 40 E. Mancuso
- 28 B. Aguirre
- 22 A. Castro
- 17 J. Tobio Burgos
- 16 N. Muslera Micol
- 21 L. Piovi
- 32 C. Correa
- 34 M. Monsalve Gonzáles
- 36 J. Pereyra
- 41 B. Sagües Barreiro
- 33 J. Gauto
- 79 B. Sepúlveda
- 17 F. Bussio
- 21 A. Lotti
- 24 M. Barrios Santos
- 18 B. Merlini
- 4 A. Lagos
- 13 I. Vázquez
- 29 F. Minerva
- 38 A. Ingenthron
- 11 N. López Alonso
- 37 S. Cambiasso
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