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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Estudiantes - Platense

09/12/2026, 05:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Estudiantes
1.8
Total xG
2.9
Platense
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
ESTPLA

Estudiantes

Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.75
Defensive weakness (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.43
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap)
+0.10
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.09
Alexis Castro on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
TomĂĄs Palacios not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Ezequiel Piovi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

Platense

Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.58
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.52
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap)
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.01
NicolĂĄs Retamar on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 63% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.41
-0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Platense: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)

  • 2
    Platense: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Platense: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 11 total)

  • 4
    Platense: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

26%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Strong statistical advantage with a 51% calculated home win probability for Estudiantes
  • Estudiantes dominated recent matches with an average of 69% possession and 5.2 shots on target
  • Platense averaged just 46% possession and 4.6 shots on target in their recent outings
Risk Factors
  • NicolĂĄs Retamar is missing for Platense, leaving only 64% of their usual goal threat available
  • Estudiantes' goal scoring has stalled lately, averaging 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.3
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
Overview

Estudiantes host Platense at the Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on September 12, 2026, 7:45 PM

Top-ranked Estudiantes (1st place, 31 points) face Platense (13th place, 16 points) as the clear favorites

Form

Estudiantes have struggled recently with one win, one draw, and three losses (Form: LWLDL)

Platense show better recent form with two wins, two draws, and one loss (Form: WDWLD)

Estudiantes' goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.0 goals per game

Statistics

Estudiantes boast an extremely strong defense, conceding just 0.64 goals per game with 12 clean sheets

At home, Estudiantes concede a mere 0.41 goals per match

Platense average just 0.75 goals per game and failed to score in 12 matches this season

Head-to-Head

Two head-to-head matches overall with one win for Estudiantes and one draw

The last meeting ended in a 2-0 away win for Estudiantes on May 3, 2026

Estudiantes are the historically dominant side in this matchup

Key Players

Adolfo Gaich leads the Estudiantes attack with 3 goals and 2 assists

GastĂłn Benedetti strengthens the defense and has provided 2 assists

For Platense, midfielder Franco Zapiola shines with a 7.07 rating, 2 goals, and 2 assists

Not nominated for Estudiantes: Alexis Castro, TomĂĄs Palacios, Ezequiel Piovi

Goalkeepers

Fabricio Iacovich starts in goal for Estudiantes, boasting a season rating of 7.14

Juan Pablo Cozzani guards the Platense net with a stable rating of 6.88

Estudiantes have kept 12 clean sheets compared to Platense's 7

Influences

Home advantage favors Estudiantes, who have conceded only 7 goals in 17 home matches

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Venue history shows a solid average of 2.8 goals per match

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