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Lanús – Estudiantes2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Lanús
1.44
Total xG
2.32
Estudiantes
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lanús | Estudiantes |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | +0.38 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.37 | −0.37 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Dylan Aquino not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Tomás Palacios on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home advantage in model: Lanús enter as favorites with a calculated 49% home win probability and 1.44 expected goals
- Possession dominance: Estudiantes excelled in recent matches with an average of 66% possession and 7.0 shots on target
- Historical dominance: Lanús won both head-to-head matches against Estudiantes in the last two years, conceding only once
Risks
- Key absence: Dylan Aquino (6 goals, 2 assists) is not in Lanús' starting lineup, which weakens their attack
- Vulnerable away defense: Estudiantes concede an average of 1.29 goals on the road compared to their overall average of 0.65
- Low-scoring venue history: Estadio Ciudad de Lanús has seen an average of only 1.8 goals per match recently
All probabilities
Result
Lanús49%
Draw30%
Estudiantes21%
Double chance
Lanús or draw79%
Estudiantes or draw51%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lanús: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Lanús: 55% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 11)
- Lanús: 5 of 10 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Yoshan Valois: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Lanús 4-2-3-1 · Estudiantes 4-2-3-1
Lanús
- 26 N. Losada
- 33 T. Guidara
- 24 C. Izquierdoz
- 35 R. Dejesús López
- 6 S. Marcich
- 5 F. Peña Biafore
- 30 A. Cardozo
- 77 L. Besozzi
- 11 E. Salvio
- 42 G. Lobos
- 20 A. Wlk Dure
Estudiantes
- 16 N. Muslera Micol
- 20 E. Meza
- 4 S. Núñez
- 14 L. González Pírez
- 13 G. Benedetti Taffarel
- 8 G. Neves Perdomo
- 21 L. Piovi
- 29 F. Pérez Escudero
- 22 A. Castro
- 17 J. Tobio Burgos
- 19 A. Gaich
Substitutes
- 27 F. Sánchez
- 4 Gonzalo Pérez
- 1 F. Petroli
- 19 Y. Valois Murillo
- 10 D. Moreno
- 8 F. Watson
- 3 N. Morgantini
- 17 D. Medina
- 38 B. Acosta
- 39 T. Laplace
- 40 T. López
- 24 T. Palacios
- 31 B. Gallego Rodríguez
- 39 J. Elías
- 9 G. Carrillo
- 26 J. Funes Mori
- 40 E. Mancuso
- 7 J. Sosa
- 28 B. Aguirre
- 18 E. Cetré Angulo
- 1 F. Iacovich
- 52 B. Kociubinski
- 41 B. Sagües Barreiro
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