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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Lanús - Estudiantes

09/22/2026, 12:15 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Lanús
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Estudiantes
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
LANEST

Lanús

Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+0.38
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
Dylan Aquino not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

Estudiantes

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Tomás Palacios on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.37
-0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lanús: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)

  • 2
    Lanús: 55% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 11)

  • 3
    Lanús: 5 of 10 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Yoshan Valois: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

30%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Home advantage in model: Lanús enter as favorites with a calculated 49% home win probability and 1.44 expected goals
  • Possession dominance: Estudiantes excelled in recent matches with an average of 66% possession and 7.0 shots on target
  • Historical dominance: Lanús won both head-to-head matches against Estudiantes in the last two years, conceding only once
Risk Factors
  • Key absence: Dylan Aquino (6 goals, 2 assists) is not in Lanús' starting lineup, which weakens their attack
  • Vulnerable away defense: Estudiantes concede an average of 1.29 goals on the road compared to their overall average of 0.65
  • Low-scoring venue history: Estadio Ciudad de Lanús has seen an average of only 1.8 goals per match recently
Overview

Lanús host Estudiantes

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on September 22, 2026, 12:15 AM

Lanús sit in 6th place with 24 points while Estudiantes lead the table in 1st place with 31 points

A crucial clash at the Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez as the league leaders visit

Form

Lanús show a form curve of LDLWW with two consecutive wins

Their last match ended in a clear 3-0 away win against Deportivo Riestra

Estudiantes arrive with a form curve of WLDLW, recently winning 2-1 against Platense

Both teams recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Lanús score an average of 1.12 goals per game this season and concede 0.96 goals

In home games, Lanús averaged 1.08 goals scored and allowed only 0.83 goals conceded

Estudiantes averaged 1.08 goals scored per match while conceding an extremely low 0.65 goals

Away from home, however, the league leaders concede an average of 1.29 goals per game while scoring 1.14

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches in the last two years

Lanús won both encounters, dominating the record with 2 wins

The overall goal difference is 3-1 in favor of Lanús

The last meeting on March 13, 2026, ended in a 1-0 away victory for Lanús

Key Players

Carlos Izquierdoz leads the Lanús defense with an average rating of 7.19 and has already scored 3 goals

Allan Wlk scored a strong average of 0.82 goals per 90 minutes in his recent appearances

Eduardo Salvio has already contributed 5 assists this season and shows a rising trend

For Estudiantes, Alexis Castro excels in midfield with 4 goals this season and a strong form trend

Joaquín Tobio Burgos scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in his last appearances

Adolfo Gaich has registered 4 goals and 2 assists as an attacker this campaign

Goalkeepers

Nahuel Losada is in goal for Lanús, holding an average rating of 7.1 and has recorded 7 home clean sheets this season

Fernando Muslera guards the net for Estudiantes with an average rating of 7.15 and has already registered 5 away clean sheets

Influences

Lanús benefit from home advantage at the Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez on natural grass

Their home record shows a stable defense with only 0.83 goals conceded per game

The stadium statistics show an average of only 1.8 goals per match, suggesting a potentially low-scoring affair

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