Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Lanús - Estudiantes
09/22/2026, 12:15 AM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.3
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
13%0:0
11%2:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Lanús
Estudiantes
League
The Lab
- 1Lanús: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- 2Lanús: 55% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 11)
- 3Lanús: 5 of 10 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- 4Yoshan Valois: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
49%
Draw
30%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
51%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- Home advantage in model: Lanús enter as favorites with a calculated 49% home win probability and 1.44 expected goals
- Possession dominance: Estudiantes excelled in recent matches with an average of 66% possession and 7.0 shots on target
- Historical dominance: Lanús won both head-to-head matches against Estudiantes in the last two years, conceding only once
Risk Factors
- Key absence: Dylan Aquino (6 goals, 2 assists) is not in Lanús' starting lineup, which weakens their attack
- Vulnerable away defense: Estudiantes concede an average of 1.29 goals on the road compared to their overall average of 0.65
- Low-scoring venue history: Estadio Ciudad de Lanús has seen an average of only 1.8 goals per match recently
Overview
Lanús host Estudiantes
Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on September 22, 2026, 12:15 AM
Lanús sit in 6th place with 24 points while Estudiantes lead the table in 1st place with 31 points
A crucial clash at the Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez as the league leaders visit
Form
Lanús show a form curve of LDLWW with two consecutive wins
Their last match ended in a clear 3-0 away win against Deportivo Riestra
Estudiantes arrive with a form curve of WLDLW, recently winning 2-1 against Platense
Both teams recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Lanús score an average of 1.12 goals per game this season and concede 0.96 goals
In home games, Lanús averaged 1.08 goals scored and allowed only 0.83 goals conceded
Estudiantes averaged 1.08 goals scored per match while conceding an extremely low 0.65 goals
Away from home, however, the league leaders concede an average of 1.29 goals per game while scoring 1.14
Head-to-Head
There have been 2 head-to-head matches in the last two years
Lanús won both encounters, dominating the record with 2 wins
The overall goal difference is 3-1 in favor of Lanús
The last meeting on March 13, 2026, ended in a 1-0 away victory for Lanús
Key Players
Carlos Izquierdoz leads the Lanús defense with an average rating of 7.19 and has already scored 3 goals
Allan Wlk scored a strong average of 0.82 goals per 90 minutes in his recent appearances
Eduardo Salvio has already contributed 5 assists this season and shows a rising trend
For Estudiantes, Alexis Castro excels in midfield with 4 goals this season and a strong form trend
Joaquín Tobio Burgos scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in his last appearances
Adolfo Gaich has registered 4 goals and 2 assists as an attacker this campaign
Goalkeepers
Nahuel Losada is in goal for Lanús, holding an average rating of 7.1 and has recorded 7 home clean sheets this season
Fernando Muslera guards the net for Estudiantes with an average rating of 7.15 and has already registered 5 away clean sheets
Influences
Lanús benefit from home advantage at the Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez on natural grass
Their home record shows a stable defense with only 0.83 goals conceded per game
The stadium statistics show an average of only 1.8 goals per match, suggesting a potentially low-scoring affair