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River Plate – Huracán1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
River Plate
1.61
Total xG
2.39
Huracán
0.78
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | River Plate | Huracán |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | +0.45 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Juan Bisanz on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home win prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a 56% home win probability for River Plate
- Offensive power: River Plate averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches with 59% possession
- Squad strength: The home side has 98% of its seasonal goal production available for this fixture
Risks
- Huracán has averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches (avgShotsOnTarget)
- Huracán's goal production has stalled at a recent average of 1.0 goals compared to its season average of 1.33
All probabilities
Result
River Plate56%
Draw28%
Huracán16%
Double chance
River Plate or draw84%
Huracán or draw44%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:0
13%
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- River Plate: 7 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- River Plate with Sebastián Driussi starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (18/10 games, last 29)
- River Plate: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Huracán: 2.9 cards per game (29 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
River Plate 4-2-3-1 · Huracán 4-2-3-1
River Plate
- 41 S. Beltrán
- 29 G. Montiel
- 28 L. Martínez Quarta
- 30 N. Otamendi
- 21 M. Acuña
- 15 F. Vera
- 23 T. Almada
- 50 T. Andrada
- 10 Á. Correa Martínez
- 26 T. Galván
- 9 S. Driussi
Huracán
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 2 L. Blondel
- 6 F. Pereyra
- 35 M. Palazzo
- 25 C. Ibáñez
- 5 R. Fernández Cedrés
- 15 F. Waller Martiarena
- 7 O. Cortés Cortés
- 8 L. Gil
- 24 F. Kalinger di Napoli
- 9 J. Caicedo Medina
Substitutes
- 18 L. Beltrán
- 8 M. Arambarri Rosa
- 3 F. Ortega
- 13 L. Rivero Cruz
- 19 R. Borré Maury
- 2 T. Palacio
- 24 J. Meza
- 33 E. Centurión
- 44 L.Silva
- 20 G. González Apud
- 43 V. Lucero
- 4 F. Vera
- 20 P. Ojeda
- 11 T. Peralta Ortiz
- 10 Ó. Romero Villamayor
- 21 H. Nervo
- 34 I. Campo
- 17 J. Bisanz
- 32 S. Meza
- 19 L. Lescano
- 41 L. Mora
- 49 T. Natanael Uribe Sanders
- 51 M. Soto
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