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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Unión Santa Fe - Independiente

09/19/2026, 07:45 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Unión Santa Fe
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Independiente
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
USFIND

Unión Santa Fe

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.16
Ignacio Malcorra on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Independiente

Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.28
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.10
Lautaro Millán on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
52% of goal output missing (only 49% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.38
-0.38
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Unión Santa Fe: 75% of all goals in the second half (15 of 20, last 12 games)

  • 2
    Unión Santa Fe with Brahian David Cuello starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (16/7 games, last 27)

  • 3
    Unión Santa Fe: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Only 50% of the attacking threat available for Independiente, with Lautaro Millán missing
  • Tactical metrics: Independiente dominated possession recently, averaging 56% ball possession
  • Home defense strength: Unión Santa Fe concedes only 0.79 goals per match on average at home
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
  • Historical H2H record favors Independiente with one away win and one draw
  • Defensive risk from high historical goal-conceding rate in head-to-heads with 11 goals in two games
Overview

Unión Santa Fe host Independiente at the Estadio 15 de Abril

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on September 19, 2026, 7:45 PM

The home side is currently in 8th place with 21 points

The visitors travel in 5th place with 24 points

A balanced matchup in the upper-mid table

Form

Unión Santa Fe holds a recent form of LWWWL

Their last match ended in a 1-2 defeat away to Talleres Córdoba

Independiente enters the match with a form of WDLWD

The visitors recently drew 1-1 against San Lorenzo

Statistics

Unión Santa Fe scores an average of 1.56 goals per game this season

At home they concede only 0.79 goals per match

Independiente averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.23 goals conceded away from home

The home team kept 5 clean sheets in 14 home games

Head-to-Head

Two head-to-head matches in recent history

Unión Santa Fe with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 win for Independiente

The last direct encounter ended in a spectacular 4-4 draw on March 10, 2026

A total of 11 goals have been scored in this fixture

Key Players

Cristian Tarragona is the top striker for the hosts with 14 goals

Julián Palacios shines in midfield with 3 goals and 8 assists

Santiago Montiel leads the visitors with 3 goals and 4 assists

Not selected is Ignacio Malcorra (1 goal and 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Matías Mansilla is in goal for Unión Santa Fe with a rising form rating of 7.27

Rodrigo Rey starts for Independiente with a rising form rating of 7.02

Both goalkeepers have played the majority of the season

Influences

Strong home defensive record for Unión Santa Fe with only 11 goals conceded in 14 games

Historical average of 3.6 goals per game at the Estadio 15 de Abril

Both teams scored in all 5 analyzed historical home matches

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