Match report →
Unión Santa Fe – Independiente1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Unión Santa Fe
1.47
Total xG
2.43
Independiente
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Unión Santa Fe | Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Ignacio Malcorra on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Lautaro Millán on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 49% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 50% of the attacking threat available for Independiente, with Lautaro Millán missing
- Tactical metrics: Independiente dominated possession recently, averaging 56% ball possession
- Home defense strength: Unión Santa Fe concedes only 0.79 goals per match on average at home
Risks
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
- Historical H2H record favors Independiente with one away win and one draw
- Defensive risk from high historical goal-conceding rate in head-to-heads with 11 goals in two games
All probabilities
Result
Unión Santa Fe47%
Draw30%
Independiente23%
Double chance
Unión Santa Fe or draw77%
Independiente or draw53%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Unión Santa Fe: 75% of all goals in the second half (15 of 20, last 12 games)
- Unión Santa Fe with Brahian David Cuello starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (16/7 games, last 27)
- Unión Santa Fe: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Unión Santa Fe 4-4-2 · Independiente 4-3-3
Unión Santa Fe
- 21 M. Mansilla
- 15 J. Pintado Leines
- 4 M. Rocha Calderón
- 26 J. Ludueña
- 18 L. Ayala
- 20 J. Palacios
- 17 J. Mosqueira
- 5 L. Menossi
- 22 B. Cuello
- 19 M. Estigarribia
- 25 C. Tarragona
Independiente
- 33 R. Rey
- 29 L. Godoy
- 13 J. Fedorco
- 35 J. Arrayago
- 22 F. Zavala
- 16 M. Curci
- 23 I. Marcone
- 8 M. Meza
- 7 S. Montiel
- 6 L. Ávila
- 24 J. Palais
Substitutes
- 31 M. Aguirre
- 40 L. Meuli Palma
- 12 B. Pittón
- 8 E. Giaccone
- 43 E. Ramírez
- 27 T. Rubio
- 10 V. Malcorra
- 11 M. Luna Diale
- 36 M. Aimar
- 44 T. Fagioli
- 34 M. Peresutti
- 38 V. Cerrudo
- 4 S. Arias Naranjo
- 77 S. Mele Castanero
- 14 G. Millán
- 10 L. Cabral
- 9 I. Morales Bravo
- 19 M. Abaldo Menyou
- 36 S. Valdez
- 30 T. Parmo
- 34 F.Tempone
- 32 R. Martínez
- 2 F. Calderón
- 39 R. Martino
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