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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza - Deportivo Riestra

09/19/2026, 05:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Deportivo Riestra
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

0:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
GYEMDR

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.31
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.31
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.09
Attack strength (1.35x league average)
+0.05
Facundo Lencioni not in squad (4 goals, 7 assists)
Fermin Antonini on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
TomĂĄs O'Connor not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Deportivo Riestra

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.24
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (0.5 vs 0.7 season average)
-0.05
Antony Alonso on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 65% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.38
-0.38
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Esteban FernĂĄndez starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (14/8 games, last 25)

  • 2
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 2.8 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

32%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Form trend: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza is currently scoring more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.2)
  • Home vs Away performance: Gimnasia concedes only 0.73 goals per home game, while Riestra allows 2.17 goals per away game
  • Model prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Gimnasia with a home win probability of 40%
Risk Factors
  • Squad impact for Gimnasia: Facundo Lencioni, Fermin Antonini, and TomĂĄs O'Connor are missing, leaving only 69% of the goal threat active
  • Squad impact for Riestra: Antony Alonso is missing from the lineup, leaving only 66% of the goal threat active
  • Offensive struggles: Deportivo Riestra failed to score in 16 out of 25 matches this season
Overview

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (10th place, 19 points) hosts Deportivo Riestra (15th place, 11 points) at Estadio Feliciano Gambarte

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on September 19, 2026, 6:30 PM

Gimnasia enters this home game as the favorite

Form

Home team form is WWWDL

Gimnasia coming off a 0-2 loss against Defensa y Justicia

Away team form is LDDDL

Riestra is winless in their last 5 matches

Statistics

Gimnasia scores 1.12 goals and concedes 1.24 goals on average this season

Strong home defense for Gimnasia with only 0.73 goals conceded per game

Riestra scores only 0.50 goals per away game

Riestra concedes an average of 2.17 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

Only 1 head-to-head match registered so far

The last match ended in a 0-0 draw on March 12, 2026

Even historical record between both teams

Key Players

AgustĂ­n MĂłdica has 12 season goals and scored 5 in his last 5 games

Esteban FernĂĄndez shines in midfield with 2 goals and 3 assists

Ezequiel Muñoz stabilizes the defense with a 6.93 rating

Alexander DĂ­az is the main threat for the visitors with 2 goals

Milton CĂ©liz performs well in midfield with a 6.96 rating

Mariano Bracamonte contributed 1 goal and 1 assist so far

Goalkeepers

Cesar Rigamonti in goal for Gimnasia with 7 clean sheets this season

Ignacio Arce stands in goal for Riestra with 9 clean sheets

Arce holds a strong season average rating of 7.14

Influences

Home advantage at Estadio Feliciano Gambarte for Gimnasia

Venue stats show an average of 2.8 goals per match

Away matches are highly demanding for Riestra with 2.17 goals conceded per game

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