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Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza – Deportivo Riestra0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
1.21
Total xG
2.20
Deportivo Riestra
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.31 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.31 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 0.7 season average) | −0.05 | |
| Attack strength (1.35x league average) | +0.05 | |
| Facundo Lencioni not in squad (4 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Fermin Antonini on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Tomás O'Connor not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Antony Alonso on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form trend: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza is currently scoring more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.2)
- Home vs Away performance: Gimnasia concedes only 0.73 goals per home game, while Riestra allows 2.17 goals per away game
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Gimnasia with a home win probability of 40%
Risks
- Squad impact for Gimnasia: Facundo Lencioni, Fermin Antonini, and Tomás O'Connor are missing, leaving only 69% of the goal threat active
- Squad impact for Riestra: Antony Alonso is missing from the lineup, leaving only 66% of the goal threat active
- Offensive struggles: Deportivo Riestra failed to score in 16 out of 25 matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza40%
Draw32%
Deportivo Riestra28%
Double chance
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza or draw72%
Deportivo Riestra or draw60%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
12%
0:1
9%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Esteban Fernández starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (14/8 games, last 25)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 2.8 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 4-2-3-1 · Deportivo Riestra 4-4-2
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- 23 C. Rigamonti
- 32 L. Paredes
- 2 D. Mondino
- 4 E. Muñoz
- 3 M. Recalde
- 15 U. Sánchez
- 5 N. Barboza
- 7 L. Cingolani
- 30 E. Fernández
- 33 O. Andrada
- 9 A. Módica
Deportivo Riestra
- 1 I. Arce
- 15 N. Sansotre
- 24 F. Miño
- 22 C. Paz
- 36 M. Bracamonte
- 35 Á. Stringa
- 8 M. Céliz
- 14 P. Monje
- 27 J. Goitía
- 11 A. Díaz
- 29 M. Graneros
Substitutes
- 8 M. Vargas Martín
- 11 S. Rodríguez
- 35 V. Simoni
- 22 J. Franco Arrellaga
- 20 T. Ortiz
- 19 J. Ceballos
- 27 B. Armoa Núñez
- 36 I. Cortez
- 17 I. Sabatini Charparin
- 42 L. Carrera
- 31 L. Petruchi
- 16 G. Guiffrey
- 21 T. González
- 7 A. Alonso Espinoza
- 31 M. Smarra Vargas
- 16 N. Watson
- 40 G. Obredor
- 5 P. Ramírez
- 13 R. Gallo
- 3 E. Tovo
- 18 B. Pérez
- 20 T. Lauro
- 23 M. Arzamendia Espinoza
- 17 ?. Almada
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