Match report →
San Lorenzo – Boca Juniors0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
San Lorenzo
1.20
Total xG
2.68
Boca Juniors
1.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | San Lorenzo | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.51x league average) | +0.83 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.37 | −0.37 |
| Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average) | −0.06 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Dylan Gorosito on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Standings advantage: Second-placed Boca Juniors with 30 points hold a clear advantage over seventh-placed San Lorenzo with 22 points
- Consistent goalscoring: According to advanced stats, Boca Juniors score consistently at around 1.6 goals per game, while San Lorenzo's goal production is stagnant at 0.8 goals recently
- Tactical dominance: Boca Juniors averaged 53.6% possession and 4.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Squad adjustment: Dylan Gorosito (0 goals, 2 assists in recent stats) was not selected in the starting lineup for Boca Juniors
- Low-scoring history: Estadio Pedro Bidegain averages just 1.6 goals per game, with BTTS and Over 2.5 rates of only 20%
- Severe injury concerns: San Lorenzo will miss D. Herrera, E. Cerutti, G. Hernández, and C. Barrios due to injuries
All probabilities
Result
San Lorenzo29%
Draw29%
Boca Juniors42%
Double chance
San Lorenzo or draw58%
Boca Juniors or draw71%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Boca Juniors: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Huracán: 2 goals (87', 116')
- Boca Juniors: 7 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- San Lorenzo: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
San Lorenzo 5-4-1 · Boca Juniors 4-3-3
San Lorenzo
- 25 J. Devecchi
- 32 E. Herrera
- 2 D. Arboleda Hurtado
- 16 G. Corujo Bríccola
- 19 E. Amor
- 6 M. De Ritis Serrentino
- 9 A. Cuello
- 24 N. Tripichio
- 8 C. Insaurralde
- 38 F. Farías
- 29 R. Auzmendi
Boca Juniors
- 1 Á. Montero Perales
- 17 L. Lozano Fernández
- 2 L. Di Lollo
- 42 F. Herrera
- 3 L. Blanco
- 25 S. Ascacíbar
- 5 L. Paredes
- 18 M. Delgado
- 19 L. Flores
- 16 M. Merentiel Serrano
- 20 A. Velasco
Substitutes
- 22 J. Álvarez
- 10 F. Gulli
- 18 D. Herazo Moreno
- 11 M. Reali
- 15 M. Cardillo
- 3 T. Rodríguez Pagano
- 35 A. Cordoba
- 14 A. Ladstatter
- 13 J. Rattalino
- 20 F. Altamirano
- 30 O. Arias
- 44 E. Salas
- 11 Á. Romero Villamayor
- 9 M. Giménez
- 27 M. Braida
- 15 W. Alarcón Cepeda
- 26 M. Pellegrino
- 4 J. Figal
- 7 C. Palacios Núñez
- 12 L. Brey
- 8 T. Belmonte
- 22 S. Villa Cano
- 24 D. Gorosito
- 44 R. Bacidalupe
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