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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

San Lorenzo - Boca Juniors

09/20/2026, 05:45 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
San Lorenzo
1.2
Total xG
2.7
Boca Juniors
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SLBJ

San Lorenzo

Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average)
-0.06
Attack strength (1.22x league average)
+0.05
Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Boca Juniors

Attack strength (1.51x league average)
+0.83
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Dylan Gorosito on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.37
-0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Boca Juniors: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against HuracĂĄn: 2 goals (87', 116')

  • 2
    Boca Juniors: 7 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 3
    San Lorenzo: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

29%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Standings advantage: Second-placed Boca Juniors with 30 points hold a clear advantage over seventh-placed San Lorenzo with 22 points
  • Consistent goalscoring: According to advanced stats, Boca Juniors score consistently at around 1.6 goals per game, while San Lorenzo's goal production is stagnant at 0.8 goals recently
  • Tactical dominance: Boca Juniors averaged 53.6% possession and 4.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Squad adjustment: Dylan Gorosito (0 goals, 2 assists in recent stats) was not selected in the starting lineup for Boca Juniors
  • Low-scoring history: Estadio Pedro Bidegain averages just 1.6 goals per game, with BTTS and Over 2.5 rates of only 20%
  • Severe injury concerns: San Lorenzo will miss D. Herrera, E. Cerutti, G. HernĂĄndez, and C. Barrios due to injuries
Overview

San Lorenzo (7th place, 22 points) host Boca Juniors (2nd place, 30 points) at the Estadio Pedro Bidegain

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on September 20, 2026, 6:45 PM

Boca Juniors aim to consolidate their top spot position while the hosts seek to close the gap

Form

San Lorenzo entry with form WDLWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home side recently recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Boca Juniors arrive with form DDWDW

The visitors earned 2 wins and 3 draws in their recent games

Statistics

San Lorenzo averages 0.77 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded this season

In total, the home side kept 13 clean sheets

Boca Juniors averages 1.38 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded per game

The visitors recorded 11 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in history

0 home wins, 1 away win, and 1 draw

Goal difference of 3:4 goals

The last encounter on March 11, 2026 ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

Alexis Cuello stands out for the hosts with 5 goals and 3 assists this season, holding a 6.9 rating

Rodrigo Auzmendi scored 6 season goals for the home side

Facundo FarĂ­as contributed 1 goal with a strong season average rating of 7.51

For the visitors, Miguel Merentiel shines with 7 goals and 2 assists, rating 6.88

Santiago AscacĂ­bar contributed 5 goals and 2 assists

Leandro Paredes leads the midfield with 2 goals, 3 assists, and a 7.57 rating

Goalkeepers

José Devecchi played 8 season games for San Lorenzo with a rating of 6.89

Álvaro Montero was also on the pitch 8 times for Boca Juniors this season, rating 7

The hosts kept a total of 13 clean sheets, while the visitors recorded 11 clean sheets

Influences

San Lorenzo averaged 0.76 goals scored and 0.76 goals conceded at home

Boca Juniors scored an average of 1.43 goals and conceded 1.07 goals away from home

Statistics show an average of only 1.6 goals per game at the Estadio Pedro Bidegain

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