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Platense – Newell's Old Boys0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Platense
1.00
Total xG
1.86
Newell's Old Boys
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Platense | Newell's Old Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.37 | −0.37 |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.30 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Franco Zapiola on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form curve favors the visitors: Newell's Old Boys are unbeaten in 5 matches, while Platense has been inconsistent recently
- Striker in top form: Matías Cóccaro scored 4 goals in the past 5 matches for Newell's Old Boys
- Tactical possession stability: Newell's Old Boys averaged 50% ball possession in recent matches
Risks
- Defensive weakness of the visitors on the road: Newell's Old Boys concedes an average of 1.91 goals per away game
- Weak home offense: Platense scores an average of only 0.73 goals per home game
All probabilities
Result
Platense36%
Draw36%
Newell's Old Boys28%
Double chance
Platense or draw72%
Newell's Old Boys or draw64%
No draw64%
Goals
Over 1.557%
Under 1.543%
Over 2.529%
Under 2.571%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Both teams score
Yes38%
No62%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
1:1
15%
1:0
14%
0:1
12%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (8 of 11 total)
- Newell's Old Boys: 6 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Newell's Old Boys: 4 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (6 points rescued)
- Newell's Old Boys: 54% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 13)
- Platense: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Platense: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Platense 4-2-3-1 · Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1
Platense
- 30 J. Cozzani
- 4 A. Lagos
- 13 I. Vázquez
- 31 V. Cuesta
- 38 A. Ingenthron
- 26 P. Ferreira
- 24 M. Barrios Santos
- 7 G. Mainero
- 18 B. Merlini
- 43 N. Retamar
- 79 B. Sepúlveda
Newell's Old Boys
- 30 J. Reinatti Balansino
- 6 M. Ortega
- 17 L. Gianetti
- 16 L. Carrizo
- 28 J. Russo
- 26 R. Herrera
- 5 L. Regiardo
- 7 W. Mazzantti
- 20 F. Guch
- 32 S. Solari
- 9 M. Cóccaro Ferreira
Substitutes
- 33 J. Gauto
- 22 N. Sumavil
- 21 A. Lotti
- 3 T. Silva
- 34 M. Mendia
- 15 F. Amarfil
- 99 G. Lencina
- 10 F. Zapiola
- 5 I. Gómez
- 25 J. Saborido
- 16 G. Togni
- 11 N. López Alonso
- 27 L. Gómez
- 33 W. Núñez
- 25 B. Cabrera
- 19 J. Gómez Mattar
- 22 O. Salomón
- 99 J. Ramírez Polero
- 2 I. Glavinovich
- 21 G. Arias Arroyo
- 3 M. Luciano
- 36 F. Scarpeccio
- 39 L.Rios
- 15 A. Soñora
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