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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Rosario Central - Argentinos Juniors

09/20/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Rosario Central
1.2
Total xG
1.9
Argentinos Juniors
0.7
Most Likely Scores

0:0

17%

1:0

16%

1:1

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
RCAJ

Rosario Central

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
J. Fernández not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)

Argentinos Juniors

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.13
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
-0.01
Alan Lescano not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
Sebastián Prieto not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.37
-0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Argentinos Juniors: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 2
    Rosario Central: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 3
    Rosario Central: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Independiente: 2 goals (84', 90+2')

  • 4
    Rosario Central: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

  • 5
    Rosario Central: scored only after the break in 6 of 11 games

  • 6
    Argentinos Juniors: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

34%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

57%

Under 1.5

43%

Over 2.5

29%

Under 2.5

71%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

37%

No

63%

Key Factors
  • Home win prediction: Mathematical model calculates a 44% probability for a home win by Rosario Central
  • Dominant possession: Rosario Central recently averaged 61.4% possession and 5.8 shots on target per match
  • Offensive absences: Argentinos Juniors is missing Alan Lescano (5 goals) and Sebastián Prieto (2 goals, 2 assists) from their starting lineup
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive issues: Argentinos Juniors concedes 1.4 goals on average per away game
  • Struggling goal production: Rosario Central's recent average of 1.2 goals is below their season average of 1.4
  • Decreased efficiency: Argentinos Juniors also averages only 1.0 goal in recent games compared to their season average of 1.4
Overview

Rosario Central (3rd place, 25 points) faces Argentinos Juniors (5th place, 23 points)

Top clash in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol at the Estadio 15 de Abril

Match on September 20, 2026, 10:00 PM

Both teams compete to stay close to the top of the table

Form

Rosario Central shows a form of WDLDW with 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches

Most recently they secured a 1-0 win against Tigre

Argentinos Juniors shows a form of LDWDD with 1 win and 3 draws

Their last match ended in a 1-1 draw against Gimnasia La Plata

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Rosario Central averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.96 goals conceded per match

In 15 home games Rosario Central scored 1.27 goals on average and conceded 0.87 goals

Argentinos Juniors averages 1.21 goals scored and 0.79 goals conceded per match

Away from home the visitors concede 1.4 goals on average while scoring 1.2 goals

Rosario Central kept 8 clean sheets this season while Argentinos Juniors kept 13

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches recorded in the database

1 draw and 1 win for Rosario Central

Goal difference of 3:2 in favor of Rosario Central

The last direct encounter ended in a 0-0 draw on March 11, 2026

Key Players

Ángel Di María has recorded 8 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 7.44

Jáminton Campaz has 3 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 7.27

Enzo Copetti scored 5 goals and provided 1 assist so far

Tomás Molina leads the visitors with 5 goals and 4 assists

Gastón Verón has scored 4 goals with a rating of 7.06

Hernán López Muñoz contributed 4 goals and 3 assists

Not in the lineup for the visitors: Alan Lescano (5G/0A) and Sebastián Prieto (2G/2A)

Goalkeepers

Axel Werner is in goal for Rosario Central with a rating of 7.81

Brayan Josué Cortés Fernández played 28 matches for the visitors with a rating of 6.89

Rosario Central has 8 clean sheets while Argentinos Juniors has recorded 13 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio 15 de Abril

This venue averages 3.6 goals per game with a BTTS rate of 100%

Home advantage for Rosario Central with a solid defense in their own stadium

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