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Rosario Central – Argentinos Juniors1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Rosario Central
1.15
Total xG
1.87
Argentinos Juniors
0.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rosario Central | Argentinos Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.37 | −0.37 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| J. Fernández not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Alan Lescano not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Sebastián Prieto not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home win prediction: Mathematical model calculates a 44% probability for a home win by Rosario Central
- Dominant possession: Rosario Central recently averaged 61.4% possession and 5.8 shots on target per match
- Offensive absences: Argentinos Juniors is missing Alan Lescano (5 goals) and Sebastián Prieto (2 goals, 2 assists) from their starting lineup
Risks
- Away defensive issues: Argentinos Juniors concedes 1.4 goals on average per away game
- Struggling goal production: Rosario Central's recent average of 1.2 goals is below their season average of 1.4
- Decreased efficiency: Argentinos Juniors also averages only 1.0 goal in recent games compared to their season average of 1.4
All probabilities
Result
Rosario Central44%
Draw34%
Argentinos Juniors21%
Double chance
Rosario Central or draw79%
Argentinos Juniors or draw56%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.557%
Under 1.543%
Over 2.529%
Under 2.571%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Both teams score
Yes37%
No63%
Most likely scores
0:0
17%
1:0
16%
1:1
14%
2:0
10%
0:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Argentinos Juniors: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Rosario Central: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Rosario Central: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Independiente: 2 goals (84', 90+2')
- Rosario Central: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Rosario Central: scored only after the break in 6 of 11 games
- Argentinos Juniors: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 12 games)
Lineups
Rosario Central 4-2-3-1 · Argentinos Juniors 4-4-2
Rosario Central
- 1 A. Werner
- 42 E. Verón
- 46 I. Ovando
- 13 G. Ávila
- 3 A. Sández
- 5 F. Ibarra
- 20 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
- 88 A. Rodríguez Guaglianoni
- 11 Á. Di María Hernández
- 8 J. Campaz
- 22 E. Copetti
Argentinos Juniors
- 25 B. Cortés Fernández
- 17 F. Paredes
- 16 F. Álvarez
- 6 F. Vázquez
- 26 C. Bravo
- 29 E. Viveros Mereles
- 15 K. Gutiérrez
- 8 H. López Muñoz
- 11 N. Oroz
- 27 T. Molina
- 9 G. Verón
Substitutes
- 10 F. Cervi
- 33 A. Soto
- 23 J. Ledesma
- 26 G. Cantizano
- 9 M. Ruben Rodríguez
- 31 F. Navarro
- 24 J. Giménez
- 27 G. De Jesús Duarte
- 15 F. Mallo Blanco
- 16 T. Badaloni
- 7 M. Cabrera
- 2 S. Zaracho
- 30 A. Núñez Duarte
- 22 K. Coronel Alarcón
- 19 M. Giménez Rojas
- 12 G. Siri Payer
- 32 G. Infantino
- 10 C. Florentín
- 7 D. Rodrigo Porcel
- 4 E. Godoy
- 18 F. Mancuello
- 36 G. Bouhier
- 35 A. Alcaraz
- 23 M. Mendoza
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