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Central Cordoba SdE – Defensa y Justicia2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Central Cordoba SdE
1.05
Total xG
2.36
Defensa y Justicia
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Central Cordoba SdE | Defensa y Justicia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.32x league average) | +0.61 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.39 | −0.39 |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.33 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 0.8 season average) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 23% of goal output missing (only 89% available) |
Key factors
- Massive form discrepancy: Central Cordoba SdE is winless in 5 matches (LLDLL), while Defensa y Justicia won 3 of their last 5 (DWWLW)
- Hosts' offensive struggles: Central Cordoba SdE averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Model favors visitors: The pipeline calculates a 41% win probability for Defensa y Justicia and projects 1.30 goals for them
Risks
- Home offensive drought: Central Cordoba SdE averages only 0.65 goals per home game this season
- Low-scoring match risk: Venue history shows an average of 1.0 goals per game, and the Over 2.5 probability is just 42%
- Historical H2H trap: Central Cordoba SdE leads the direct encounters with 2 wins out of 4 matches
All probabilities
Result
Central Cordoba SdE28%
Draw31%
Defensa y Justicia41%
Double chance
Central Cordoba SdE or draw59%
Defensa y Justicia or draw72%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
0:1
11%
1:2
8%
1:0
8%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Central Cordoba SdE: opponent scores first in 9 of 10 games (90%)
- Central Cordoba SdE: 50% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 10)
Lineups
Central Cordoba SdE 4-2-3-1 · Defensa y Justicia 4-3-3
Central Cordoba SdE
- 1 A. Aguerre
- 33 A. Moyano
- 2 A. Maciel
- 6 Z. Mansilla
- 20 F. Martínez Sánchez
- 22 M. Vera
- 18 L. González Martínez
- 7 D. Barrera
- 10 M. Iacobellis
- 11 H. Tijanovich
- 47 M. Cuitiño
Defensa y Justicia
- 1 M. Borgogno
- 28 V. Pucheta Loza
- 29 D. Fernández
- 21 H. Martínez
- 3 F. Román Villalba
- 8 C. Pérez Maldonado
- 15 S. Sosa Yung
- 19 D. Barbona
- 26 J. Lucco
- 9 L. Fernández
- 24 J. Gutiérrez Freire
Substitutes
- 28 L. Sequeira
- 19 E. Naya
- 29 J. Flores
- 55 J. Cardozo López
- 42 J. Pignani
- 25 J. Vallejos
- 17 Y. Casermeiro
- 3 L. Marchi Rivero
- 5 T. Cravero
- 9 L. Varaldo
- 30 F. Ariel Rodriguez Salomon
- 21 F. Aguilar Mendoza
- 11 T. Perrotta
- 36 L. Amade
- 17 A. Hausch
- 16 A. Portillo
- 32 N. Roselli
- 5 J. López
- 7 T. Pérez
- 30 D. Domínguez
- 22 M. Porcel
- 27 D. Blanco
- 6 E. Burdin Márquez
- 41 R. Gagliardi
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