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Vélez Sarsfield – Tigre3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Vélez Sarsfield
1.15
Total xG
2.37
Tigre
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vélez Sarsfield | Tigre |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.37 | −0.37 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Martín Garay on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Mauro Méndez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form trend: Vélez Sarsfield is stable (DDDWD) while Tigre travels after two consecutive losses (DWDLL)
- Tactical edge: Vélez Sarsfield averaged 3.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to Tigre's low average of 2.2 shots
- Defensive strength: Vélez Sarsfield conceded an average of only 0.73 goals per game in home matches this season
Risks
- Tigre will have to manage without Martín Garay and Mauro Méndez in the starting lineup
- Low offensive productivity expected with Vélez averaging 3.2 shots on target and Tigre averaging 2.2 in recent matches
- Balanced model predictions with a 33% home win probability and a 36% away win probability
All probabilities
Result
Vélez Sarsfield33%
Draw31%
Tigre36%
Double chance
Vélez Sarsfield or draw64%
Tigre or draw67%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
0:1
10%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vélez Sarsfield: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Vélez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1 · Tigre 4-2-3-1
Vélez Sarsfield
- 1 T. Marchiori Carreño
- 4 J. García
- 32 T. Silvero
- 16 L. Magallán
- 3 E. Gómez
- 29 R. Aliendro
- 8 L. Robertone
- 11 M. Pellegrini
- 22 M. Lanzini
- 37 J. Policella
- 77 R. Martínez Rolón
Tigre
- 12 F. Zenobio
- 4 V. Moreno
- 20 A. Barrionuevo
- 32 J. Villalba
- 3 N. Banegas
- 10 J. Saralegui
- 5 B. Leyes Sosa
- 11 T. Serrago
- 28 G. Martínez
- 22 S. López Grobin
- 29 I. Russo Cordero
Substitutes
- 10 D. Valdés Contreras
- 23 F. Sanguinetti
- 15 D. Godoy
- 35 M. Arias
- 19 L. Cristaldo Florentín
- 5 C. Baeza Baeza
- 48 L.Feler
- 47 A. Pereyra
- 18 Simón Escobar
- 39 T. Aguirre
- 30 L. Piola
- 46 U. Piedrabuena
- 30 J. Domina
- 19 A. Oviedo Álvarez
- 8 M. Garay
- 27 S. González
- 17 G. Soto Arredondo
- 24 F. Álvarez
- 18 M. Fernández
- 50 I. Peluffo
- 23 G. Requena
- 40 L. Minniti
- 47 S.ebastian Lezcano
- 26 L. Morales
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