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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Vélez Sarsfield - Tigre

09/21/2026, 12:30 AM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Vélez Sarsfield
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Tigre
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

10%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
VSTIG

Vélez Sarsfield

Defensive weakness (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.37
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap)
+0.04
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01
Full strength squad available

Tigre

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap)
-0.09
Martín Garay on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Mauro Méndez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.37
-0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vélez Sarsfield: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

31%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Form trend: Vélez Sarsfield is stable (DDDWD) while Tigre travels after two consecutive losses (DWDLL)
  • Tactical edge: Vélez Sarsfield averaged 3.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to Tigre's low average of 2.2 shots
  • Defensive strength: Vélez Sarsfield conceded an average of only 0.73 goals per game in home matches this season
Risk Factors
  • Tigre will have to manage without Martín Garay and Mauro Méndez in the starting lineup
  • Low offensive productivity expected with Vélez averaging 3.2 shots on target and Tigre averaging 2.2 in recent matches
  • Balanced model predictions with a 33% home win probability and a 36% away win probability
Overview

Vélez Sarsfield hosts Tigre at the Estadio José Amalfitani

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on September 21, 2026, 1:30 AM

Vélez Sarsfield is in 3rd place with 28 points

Tigre occupies 10th place with 18 points

The hosts are fighting to close the gap at the top of the table

Form

Vélez Sarsfield shows stable form with the string DDDWD

The last games resulted in 1 win and 4 draws

Tigre is struggling recently with the form DWDLL

The visitors recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Vélez Sarsfield scores an average of 1.15 goals and concedes 0.77 goals this season

In their home games, the hosts average 1.18 goals scored and 0.73 goals conceded

Tigre averages 1.00 goal scored per game and concedes 0.84 goals

In away games, the visitors average 1.00 goal scored and 1.00 goal conceded

Both teams scored in 14 of Vélez Sarsfield's 26 matches this season

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in history

Vélez Sarsfield secured 2 wins, while Tigre won 1 time

The last direct meeting ended in a 1:1 draw

The goal difference in direct encounters stands at 4:5 from Vélez Sarsfield's perspective

Key Players

Manuel Lanzini has 6 goals this season with an average rating of 7.16

Matías Pellegrini has contributed 3 goals and 4 assists so far

Ronaldo Martínez features 2 goals with a rating of 7.5

Ignacio Russo scored 7 goals and provided 3 assists this season

Gonzalo Martínez has recorded 3 goals and 1 assist

Alan Barrionuevo stands out with 2 goals and a rating of 7.17

Goalkeepers

Tomás Marchiori is in goal for the hosts and holds an average rating of 7.12

Vélez Sarsfield has recorded 10 clean sheets this season

Felipe Zenobio guards the visitors' goal with an average rating of 6.9

Tigre has registered a total of 8 clean sheets so far

Influences

Vélez Sarsfield benefits from home advantage on grass at the Estadio José Amalfitani

The historical home record shows an average of 1.2 total goals per match

There has been a low BTTS rate of 20% in past home matches

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