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Barracas Central – Independiente Rivadavia0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Barracas Central
0.87
Total xG
2.12
Independiente Rivadavia
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Barracas Central | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.37 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.37 | −0.37 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.7 vs 1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Tomás Porra not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Gonzalo Maroni on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Facundo Bruera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 45% of goal output missing (only 47% available) | ||
| Álex Arce not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gonzalo Ríos on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 48% of the usual starting XI strength is available, as Tomás Porra, Gonzalo Maroni, and Facundo Bruera are missing
- Independiente Rivadavia averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches
- The mathematical analysis favors the visitors with an away win probability of 43%
Risks
- Barracas Central scores an average of only 0.79 goals per home game
- Barracas Central averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited data availability regarding duels
All probabilities
Result
Barracas Central24%
Draw33%
Independiente Rivadavia43%
Double chance
Barracas Central or draw57%
Independiente Rivadavia or draw76%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
0:1
13%
0:2
9%
1:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Independiente Rivadavia: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Barracas Central 4-1-3-2 · Independiente Rivadavia 3-1-4-2
Barracas Central
- 30 M. Miño
- 13 R. Barrios
- 15 Y. Rak Barragán
- 31 N. Demartini
- 17 E. Pereyra
- 5 D. Miloc
- 28 R. Bogarín Giménez
- 35 E. Rolón
- 10 I. Tapia
- 11 N. Briasco Belekyan
- 20 J. Candia Hernández
Independiente Rivadavia
- 30 N. Bolcato
- 2 L. Costa Martínez
- 40 I. Villalba Chamorro
- 42 S. Studer
- 25 J. Florentín Bobadilla
- 14 L. Gómez
- 10 M. Fernández
- 77 L. Sequeira
- 3 J. Elordi
- 43 F. Sartori Prieto
- 17 M. Salas
Substitutes
- 36 T. Lavezzi
- 4 D. Martínez
- 6 R. Insúa
- 37 G. Campi
- 33 G. Maroni
- 24 E. Taborda
- 2 N. Capraro
- 19 C. Arce
- 77 F. Bruera
- 16 I. Guaraz
- 7 J. Barbieri
- 43 L. Fernández
- 13 A. Osella
- 21 E. Gómez Riga
- 27 D. Mayans
- 32 K. Vázquez
- 19 R. Atencio
- 7 V. Ramis
- 8 L. Bucca
- 11 G. Ríos
- 34 S. Moreyra
- 5 T. Bottari
- 28 A. Vigo
- 23 L. Díaz
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