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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Barracas Central - Independiente Rivadavia

09/21/2026, 10:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Barracas Central
0.9
Total xG
2.1
Independiente Rivadavia
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

13%

0:2

9%

1:0

9%
What influences the xG?
BCIR

Barracas Central

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.18
Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.15
Declining form (0.7 vs 1 season average)
-0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap)
-0.06
TomĂĄs Porra not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Gonzalo Maroni on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Facundo Bruera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
45% of goal output missing (only 47% available)

Independiente Rivadavia

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.08
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Álex Arce  not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists)
Gonzalo RĂ­os on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.37
-0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Independiente Rivadavia: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

24%

Draw

33%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

76%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Only 48% of the usual starting XI strength is available, as TomĂĄs Porra, Gonzalo Maroni, and Facundo Bruera are missing
  • Independiente Rivadavia averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • The mathematical analysis favors the visitors with an away win probability of 43%
Risk Factors
  • Barracas Central scores an average of only 0.79 goals per home game
  • Barracas Central averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Limited data availability regarding duels
Overview

Barracas Central (8th place, 20 points) host Independiente Rivadavia (2nd place, 28 points) at Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on September 21, 2026, 10:00 PM

The visitors arrive as second in the table and want to keep the pressure on the top

Form

Barracas Central is in weak form with the form string LLDDD

Numbers for the home team show 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses

Independiente Rivadavia is more stable with the form string LDWLW

Numbers for the away team show 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Barracas Central scored an average of 0.8 goals per game this season

The home team conceded an average of 0.84 goals per match

Independiente Rivadavia scored an average of 1.65 goals per game this season

The visitors conceded an average of 1.15 goals per encounter

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches between the two teams so far

The record is completely balanced with 1 win for each team and 2 draws

The last encounter ended with a 2-1 win for the home team on March 12, 2026

The goal difference stands at 3-5 in favor of Independiente Rivadavia

Key Players

IvĂĄn Tapia is a key driver in midfield with 3 goals and 2 assists this season

Norberto Briasco contributed 1 goal in 16 appearances

NicolĂĄs Demartini stabilizes the defense with a season rating average of 6.75

MatĂ­as FernĂĄndez shines for the visitors with 3 goals and 5 assists

Fabrizio Sartori is the most clinical attacker with 8 goals this season

Not nominated: Álex Arce (9 goals and 1 assist), Gonzalo Ríos (3 goals and 4 assists)

Goalkeepers

Marcelo Miño plays in goal for Barracas Central and contributed to the team's 9 clean sheets so far

For Independiente Rivadavia, NicolĂĄs Bolcato guards the goal, with his team keeping 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia

Stadium statistics show an average of 1.6 goals per game in past matches

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 home games, and there were over 2.5 goals in 2 of them

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