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Aldosivi – Atlético Tucumán1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Aldosivi
0.91
Total xG
2.14
Atlético Tucumán
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Aldosivi | Atlético Tucumán |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.47 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.40 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.37 | −0.37 |
| Rising form (2 vs 0.8 season average) | +0.34 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Andrés Vombergar not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Clever Ferreira not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Franco Nicola not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 82% available) |
Key factors
- Tactical advantage: Aldosivi averaged 5.6 shots on target recently, compared to Atlético Tucumán's low average of 3.0 shots on target
- Form trend: Aldosivi is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average of 0.9
- Squad impact: The visitors are weakened by the absence of Clever Ferreira (3 goals) and Franco Nicola (2 goals)
Risks
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
- Away offensive limits: Atlético Tucumán averages only 0.86 goals scored per away game
- Home offensive struggles: Aldosivi scores an average of only 0.67 goals per home match
All probabilities
Result
Aldosivi26%
Draw33%
Atlético Tucumán42%
Double chance
Aldosivi or draw58%
Atlético Tucumán or draw74%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
0:1
13%
1:0
9%
0:2
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Aldosivi: dropped a lead in 6 of 6 games (15 points lost)
- Atlético Tucumán: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 9 total)
- Atlético Tucumán: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
Aldosivi 4-3-1-2 · Atlético Tucumán 4-1-4-1
Aldosivi
- 42 L. Acosta
- 14 E. López
- 25 N. Breitenbruch
- 32 J. Pombo
- 13 B. Cufré
- 8 Martín Adolfo García
- 5 N. Linares
- 19 L. Nahuel Castro
- 10 O. Gaitán
- 27 T. Fernández
- 9 N. Cordero
Atlético Tucumán
- 1 L. Ingolotti
- 24 L. Di Plácido
- 6 G. Ferrari
- 36 L. Vallejo
- 21 I. Galván
- 19 L. Vega
- 11 R. Tesuri
- 5 J. Fernández
- 31 L. Godoy
- 23 N. Laméndola
- 9 L. Díaz
Substitutes
- 11 B. Palavecino
- 23 I. Chicco
- 7 N. Guzmán
- 33 N. Zalazar
- 4 R. González
- 28 S. Moya
- 16 B. Dadín
- 15 F. Perruzzi
- 17 F. Laurelli
- 24 F. Anso
- 2 L. Sigali
- 17 J. Rodríguez
- 3 M. Villa Pereira
- 8 A. Ham
- 30 M. Brondo
- 25 T. Durso
- 22 F. Pimienta
- 28 G. Compagnucci
- 32 J. Infante
- 18 R. Ruiz Rodríguez
- 14 P. Canelo
- 27 R. Granillo González
- 34 M. Carrizo
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