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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Aldosivi - Atlético Tucumán

09/21/2026, 05:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Aldosivi
0.9
Total xG
2.1
Atlético Tucumán
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

0:1

13%

1:0

9%

0:2

9%
What influences the xG?
ALDAT

Aldosivi

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.40
Rising form (2 vs 0.8 season average)
+0.34
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.23
Andrés Vombergar not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)

Atlético Tucumán

Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.47
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Clever Ferreira not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Franco Nicola not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 82% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.37
-0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Aldosivi: dropped a lead in 6 of 6 games (15 points lost)

  • 2
    Atlético Tucumán: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 9 total)

  • 3
    Atlético Tucumán: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

33%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Aldosivi averaged 5.6 shots on target recently, compared to Atlético Tucumán's low average of 3.0 shots on target
  • Form trend: Aldosivi is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average of 0.9
  • Squad impact: The visitors are weakened by the absence of Clever Ferreira (3 goals) and Franco Nicola (2 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
  • Away offensive limits: Atlético Tucumán averages only 0.86 goals scored per away game
  • Home offensive struggles: Aldosivi scores an average of only 0.67 goals per home match
Overview

Aldosivi in 14th place with 7 points host Atlético Tucumán in 13th place with 13 points

Match at Estadio José María Minella on September 21, 2026, 6:30 PM

A key matchup in the lower part of the table

Form

Aldosivi enters the match with a form string of DLLWL

The home side recorded 1 win and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Atlético Tucumán arrives with a form string of WDDWL

The visitors secured 2 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Statistics

Aldosivi scores an average of 0.68 goals and concedes 1.4 goals per match this season

At home, the hosts average 0.67 goals scored and 0.92 goals conceded

Atlético Tucumán scores an average of 0.88 goals and concedes 1.0 goal

On the road, the visitors average 0.86 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams

The only direct meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on March 12, 2026

The historical balance is completely even

Key Players

Tomás Fernández has 2 goals and 3 assists with a 6.77 average rating this season

Lucas Castro shows rising form with a 7.05 rating over the last 5 games

Nicolás Gaitán has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist so far

Leandro Díaz leads the visitors with 7 goals and 1 assist this season

Lautaro Godoy stood out recently with 1 goal and 3 assists in the last 5 matches

Nicolás Laméndola provides stable output with 1 goal and 1 assist this season

Goalkeepers

Lucas Acosta starts in goal for Aldosivi with a 6.61 average season rating

Luis Ingolotti guards the goal for the visitors, keeping 11 clean sheets this season

Aldosivi has managed only 5 clean sheets in comparison

Influences

The match will be played on grass at Estadio José María Minella

Venue statistics show an average of 2.6 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate

Aldosivi recorded 5 home clean sheets this season

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