Match report →
Gimnasia La Plata – Banfield2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Gimnasia La Plata
1.72
Total xG
2.84
Banfield
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gimnasia La Plata | Banfield |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +0.80 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Santiago López García on the bench (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Tomás Adoryán not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Banfield must cope without key players Santiago López García and Tomás Adoryán in the starting lineup, leaving them with only 78% of their usual strength
- Gimnasia La Plata averaged 1.4 goals per game recently, whereas Banfield concedes a high average of 1.9 goals away
- The mathematical model predicts a solid home win probability of 50% with 1.72 expected goals for the hosts
Risks
- Both teams were counter-oriented in recent matches with an average of under 40% possession
- Gimnasia La Plata conceded an average of 2.0 goals in recent matches, which is significantly above the season average of 1.31
All probabilities
Result
Gimnasia La Plata50%
Draw27%
Banfield23%
Double chance
Gimnasia La Plata or draw77%
Banfield or draw50%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia La Plata: 3.3 cards per game (37 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Banfield: 5 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Banfield: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 13 total)
- Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Gimnasia La Plata 4-2-3-1 · Banfield 3-4-1-2
Gimnasia La Plata
- 23 N. Insfrán
- 31 B. Barros Schelotto
- 13 G. Conti
- 21 E. Martínez Suárez
- 24 P. Silva Torrejón
- 18 M. Seoane
- 10 N. Barros Schelotto
- 9 M. Zalazar
- 8 I. Fernández
- 17 L. Janson
- 29 A. Auzmendi
Banfield
- 50 D. Rodríguez
- 13 B. Zacarias Oviedo
- 2 S. Daniele
- 6 N. Meriano
- 12 M. López
- 5 S. Esquivel
- 11 F. Álvarez
- 27 L. Abraham
- 10 L. Gómez
- 22 A. Machado Aycaguer
- 9 A. Balboa Camacho
Substitutes
- 19 R. Colazo
- 4 R. Giampaoli
- 22 M. Melluso
- 27 J. Kadijevic
- 16 A. Max
- 25 A. Steimbach
- 32 L. Torres
- 20 J. Pérez Suaza
- 7 M. Panaro
- 26 F. Torres
- 33 P. Aguiar
- 36 L. Lamella
- 40 D. Zalazar
- 24 S. López Garcia
- 35 I. Pais Mayán
- 30 F. Anselmo
- 7 L. Piñero
- 25 G. Santilli
- 18 F. Medina
- 21 L. Villegas
- 3 N. Paz
- 28 M. Hernández
- 19 L. Cano
- 37 R. Malanca
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →