🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Belgrano - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

09/20/2026, 10:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Belgrano
1.7
Total xG
2.4
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

2:0

13%

1:1

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BELEDRC

Belgrano

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 15, 11 places gap)
+0.09
Adrián Sánchez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.74
Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-0.22
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 4, 11 places gap)
-0.09
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.01

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.37
-0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Belgrano: 7 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Belgrano: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against River Plate: 2 goals (85', 88')

  • 3
    Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)

  • 4
    Belgrano: 80% of all goals in the second half (12 of 15, last 12 games)

  • 5
    Belgrano: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

26%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Superior home record: Belgrano concede only 0.59 goals per home game, while the visitors score just 0.36 goals on their travels
  • Table standings: Belgrano sit in 4th place with 24 points, whereas Estudiantes de Río Cuarto struggle in 15th with only 5 points
  • Tactical dominance: Belgrano recently averaged 5.4 shots on target and 61.8% possession in their games
Risk Factors
  • Belgrano drew their last 3 consecutive matches
  • Midfielder Adrián Sánchez is missing from the home team's starting lineup
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto concede an average of 2.0 goals per away game
Overview

Belgrano host Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Liga Profesional de Fútbol on September 20, 2026, 7:15 PM

Belgrano are in 4th place with 24 points

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto are in 15th place with 5 points

The model calculates a home win probability of 60%

Form

Belgrano form is WLDDD with 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss

Most recent result is a 1-1 draw against Sarmiento

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto form is LDDLL with 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses

Most recent result is a 1-2 loss against Instituto

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Belgrano average 1.14 goals scored and 0.76 goals conceded per game

Home record for Belgrano is 1.12 goals scored and 0.59 conceded per game

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto average 0.36 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded

Away from home, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto concede 2.0 goals on average and score only 0.36

Head-to-Head

1 head-to-head match in the database

Belgrano won the last match 1-0 away on March 12, 2026

Belgrano lead the historical record with 1 win

Key Players

Nicolás Fernández with 6 goals and 4 assists this season

Lucas Zelarayán with an average rating of 7.29 and 4 goals

Franco Vázquez contributed 2 goals and 4 assists so far

Gabriel Alanís with 2 goals this season for the visitors

Ibrahim Hesar scored 1 goal so far this campaign

Matías Valenti with 1 assist and a rating of 6.79

Goalkeepers

Thiago Cardozo played 28 matches in goal for Belgrano

Belgrano have kept 14 clean sheets this season

Agustín Lastra has played 11 matches this season for the visitors

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto have recorded 6 clean sheets in total

Influences

Home game at Estadio Julio César Villagra on grass surface

Home average for Belgrano stands at 1.12 goals scored and 0.59 conceded

The stadium statistics show an average of 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 home matches

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.