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Belgrano – Estudiantes de Río Cuarto2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Belgrano
1.69
Total xG
2.39
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.70
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Belgrano | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.74 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.37 | −0.37 |
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 15, 11 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 4, 11 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Adrián Sánchez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Superior home record: Belgrano concede only 0.59 goals per home game, while the visitors score just 0.36 goals on their travels
- Table standings: Belgrano sit in 4th place with 24 points, whereas Estudiantes de Río Cuarto struggle in 15th with only 5 points
- Tactical dominance: Belgrano recently averaged 5.4 shots on target and 61.8% possession in their games
Risks
- Belgrano drew their last 3 consecutive matches
- Midfielder Adrián Sánchez is missing from the home team's starting lineup
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto concede an average of 2.0 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Belgrano60%
Draw26%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto14%
Double chance
Belgrano or draw86%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw40%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
2:0
13%
1:1
12%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Belgrano: 7 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Belgrano: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against River Plate: 2 goals (85', 88')
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Belgrano: 80% of all goals in the second half (12 of 15, last 12 games)
- Belgrano: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
Lineups
Belgrano 4-2-3-1 · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 3-1-4-2
Belgrano
- 25 T. Cardozo Brugman
- 26 A. Benítez Cabrera
- 14 L. Morales
- 17 L. López
- 16 F. Ricca Rostagnol
- 5 S. Longo
- 20 F. Vázquez
- 24 E. Rigoni
- 10 L. Zelarayán
- 53 J. Velazquez
- 22 N. Fernández
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- 43 A. Lastra
- 6 J. Antonini
- 2 G. Maffini
- 31 M. Valenti
- 5 A. Cabrera
- 14 G. Gonzalez
- 10 T. González
- 17 G. Alanís
- 23 F. Rodríguez
- 22 M. Valiente
- 77 I. Hesar
Substitutes
- 30 G. Zelarayán
- 37 L. Gutierrez
- 9 L. Passerini
- 2 A. Maldonado
- 8 R. Hernandes
- 11 F. González Metilli
- 23 M. Vicentini
- 13 ?. Ocampo
- 4 Agustín Griguol
- 57 S. Gatti
- 58 A. Bono
- 59 J. Flandes
- 29 A. Quiroga
- 8 S. Rosane
- 19 N. Talpone
- 28 F. Cobos
- 9 J. Ferreira
- 32 M. Bajamich
- 11 M. Garnerone
- 3 L. Baños
- 1 L. Bruera
- 16 Y. Moreno Murillo
- 18 J. Rivero
- 99 J. Chala Castillo
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