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Instituto – Talleres Córdoba3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Instituto
1.53
Total xG
2.27
Talleres Córdoba
0.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Instituto | Talleres Córdoba |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.37 | −0.37 |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.34 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Valentín Depietri on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Instituto shows positive form and is currently scoring more frequently at 1.5 goals compared to their season average
- Talleres Córdoba must play without Valentín Depietri leaving them with only 79% of their usual starting strength
- The mathematical model predicts a home win for Instituto with a 54% probability
Risks
- Talleres Córdoba averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches showing high offensive capabilities
- Injuries to L. Albarracín, F. Moyano and L. Rafaelli limit the squad depth for Instituto
All probabilities
Result
Instituto54%
Draw29%
Talleres Córdoba17%
Double chance
Instituto or draw83%
Talleres Córdoba or draw46%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
12%
2:1
9%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Instituto: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Talleres Córdoba: 3.2 cards per game (33 yellows, 5 reds in 12 games)
- Instituto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 11 total)
- Talleres Córdoba: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Talleres Córdoba: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Instituto: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (4 of 11 total)
Lineups
Instituto 3-4-3 · Talleres Córdoba 3-5-2
Instituto
- 29 M. Ledesma
- 30 J. Galván
- 26 L. Mosevich
- 6 F. Alarcón
- 44 G. Cerato
- 55 G. Abregú
- 15 M. Gallardo
- 3 D. Sosa
- 21 J. Lázaro
- 17 M. Tissera
- 10 A. Luna
Talleres Córdoba
- 32 L. Unsain
- 6 R. Riquelme
- 4 M. Catalán
- 13 V. Fascendini
- 20 A. Schott
- 37 R. Lima Morais
- 8 F. Fattori Mouzo
- 15 J. Sforza
- 23 G. Báez Corradi
- 19 F. Cristaldo
- 9 A. Álvarez Martínez
Substitutes
- 19 L. Sanseviero
- 7 N. Guerra
- 13 J. Méndez
- 2 H. De La Fuente
- 20 J. Córdoba Mosquera
- 9 F. Suárez
- 11 M. Fonseca
- 22 A. Massaccesi
- 32 A. Bravo
- 8 H. Acevedo
- 35 E. Sittaro Miranda
- 23 J. Meli
- 49 V. Dávila
- 5 M. Galarza
- 7 D. Valoyes Ruíz
- 3 A. Maidana Mendieta
- 2 T. Chamorro
- 36 E. Chiavassa
- 1 S. Barbi
- 11 V. Depietri
- 10 G. Baroni
- 44 S. Fernández
- 39 L. Fabián Ortiz
- 25 T. Baroni
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