Match report →
Racing Club – Sarmiento3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Racing Club
1.47
Total xG
2.55
Sarmiento
1.08
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Racing Club | Sarmiento |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.39 | −0.39 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.12 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Tomás Conechny on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Matko Miljevic on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form gap: Sarmiento is in much better shape with three wins from their last five matches (WWLWD) compared to Racing Club's four defeats (LDLLL)
- Tactical approaches: Racing Club was highly possession-dominant in recent matches with an average of 65.2% possession, while Sarmiento averaged 33.2% possession playing on the counter
- Away defensive weakness: Sarmiento concedes a very high average of 2.44 goals per away game this season
Risks
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
- Sarmiento's defensive vulnerability on the road with an average of 2.44 goals conceded per away game
- Racing Club's ongoing negative streak with four defeats in their last five matches
All probabilities
Result
Racing Club44%
Draw29%
Sarmiento26%
Double chance
Racing Club or draw74%
Sarmiento or draw56%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Racing Club: 3.3 cards per game (37 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Sarmiento: 7 of 20 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Racing Club 5-3-2 · Sarmiento 4-4-2
Racing Club
- 25 F. Cambeses
- 11 F. Zaracho
- 38 M. Martínez
- 6 F. Rojo
- 43 G. Escudero
- 19 I. Rodríguez
- 16 D. Ortegoza
- 33 L. Pérez
- 20 G. Lodico
- 32 L. Díaz
- 9 A. Martínez
Sarmiento
- 12 T. Ayala
- 8 S. Salle
- 44 R. Orihuela Barcos
- 2 J. Insaurralde
- 77 N. Pasquini
- 19 J. Contrera
- 15 C. Zabala
- 16 M. Martínez
- 21 J. Mavilla
- 27 J. Marabel Jara
- 24 J. Herrera
Substitutes
- 18 L. Espino García
- 10 M. Miljevic
- 17 T. Conechny
- 30 M. Tagliamonte
- 7 D. Vergara Hernández
- 23 N. Colombo
- 22 E. Torres
- 24 A. Fernández
- 46 A. Tello
- 5 C. Kranevitter
- 35 D. Deusa
- 48 G. Leiva
- 10 J. Rentería Arias
- 29 T. Santamaría
- 6 G. Arturia
- 7 P. Magnín
- 11 G. González
- 9 D. Churín
- 33 G. Díaz
- 5 M. García
- 20 U. Giménez
- 23 E. Giménez
- 1 I. Arboleda
- 17 A. Nadruz Blanco
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