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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Independiente Rivadavia - Gimnasia La Plata

10/03/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Independiente Rivadavia
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Gimnasia La Plata
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
IRGLP

Independiente Rivadavia

Attack strength (1.66x league average)
+0.81
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.01
Álex Arce  not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists)
Gonzalo RĂ­os on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

Gimnasia La Plata

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.15
11% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.36
-0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia La Plata: 3.1 cards per game (34 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

  • 2
    Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

27%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Strong home defense: Independiente Rivadavia concedes an average of only 0.95 goals per game at home
  • Statistical edge: The mathematical prediction forecasts a home win with a 54% probability
  • Perfect head-to-head record: Independiente Rivadavia won both previous direct encounters
Risk Factors
  • Weakened squad: Key players Álex Arce and Gonzalo RĂ­os are missing from the starting lineup
  • Vulnerable away defense: Gimnasia La Plata concedes an average of 1.67 goals on the road
Overview

Independiente Rivadavia (1st place, 34 points) host Gimnasia La Plata (6th place, 26 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on October 3, 2026, 1:30 AM

The league leaders host the sixth-placed team at the Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

Form

Form of Independiente Rivadavia: DWLWW

The home team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss recently

Form of Gimnasia La Plata: LWWDD

The visitors recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss recently

Statistics

Independiente Rivadavia scores an average of 1.63 goals and concedes 1.11 goals

At home, they average 1.63 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded

Gimnasia La Plata scores an average of 1.25 goals and concedes 1.29 goals

On the road, the visitors concede an average of 1.67 goals per game

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in history

Independiente Rivadavia won both previous meetings

The last direct duel ended in a 3-2 win for Independiente Rivadavia

Key Players

José Florentín scored 2 goals in the last 5 games and has a season rating of 7.18

Fabrizio Sartori has scored 8 goals this season for the hosts

MatĂ­as FernĂĄndez contributed 3 goals and 5 assists this season

AgustĂ­n Auzmendi scored 4 goals in the last 5 matches for the visitors

Nacho FernĂĄndez registered 2 goals and 4 assists this season

Pedro Silva TorrejĂłn recorded 1 goal and 3 assists this season

Goalkeepers

NicolĂĄs Bolcato has a season average rating of 6.89

Nelson InsfrĂĄn has a season average rating of 6.92

The home team has kept 7 clean sheets, while the visitors have 8

Influences

Home advantage at the Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini on grass

Stadium statistics show an average of 4.0 goals per game with a 100% BTTS rate

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