Match report â
Sarmiento â River Plate1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Sarmiento
0.72
Total xG
2.71
River Plate
1.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sarmiento | River Plate |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.42x league average) | +1.21 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.44 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | â0.42 | â0.42 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | â0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 11, 9 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 2, 9 places gap) | â0.07 | |
| Jonathan Herrera on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Mauricio MartĂnez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 96% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical model calculates a 66% probability of an away win for River Plate
- River Plate averaged 6.8 shots on target and 69% possession in recent matches
- Sarmiento averaged 40% possession and 3.6 shots on target in recent games
Risks
- River Plate have only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Sarmiento are missing starting players Jonathan Herrera and Mauricio MartĂnez
All probabilities
Result
Sarmiento11%
Draw23%
River Plate66%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Sarmiento or draw34%
River Plate or draw89%
No draw77%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
0:2
13%
1:1
11%
1:2
10%
0:3
9%
1:3
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- River Plate: 8 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- River Plate with SebastiĂĄn Driussi starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (19/10 games, last 30)
- Sarmiento: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Aldosivi: 2 goals (86', 89')
- River Plate: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- River Plate: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Sarmiento 3-5-2 · River Plate 4-1-3-2
Sarmiento
- 12 T. Ayala
- 44 R. Orihuela Barcos
- 2 J. Insaurralde
- 3 L. SuĂĄrez Scalarea
- 8 S. Salle
- 5 M. GarcĂa
- 15 C. Zabala
- 21 J. Mavilla
- 19 J. Contrera
- 27 J. Marabel Jara
- 10 J. RenterĂa Arias
River Plate
- 41 S. BeltrĂĄn
- 29 G. Montiel
- 28 L. MartĂnez Quarta
- 30 N. Otamendi
- 21 M. Acuña
- 15 F. Vera
- 50 T. Andrada
- 23 T. Almada
- 26 T. GalvĂĄn
- 10 Ă. Correa MartĂnez
- 9 S. Driussi
Substitutes
- 24 J. Herrera
- 29 T. SantamarĂa
- 6 G. Arturia
- 77 N. Pasquini
- 16 M. MartĂnez
- 39 J. Godoy
- 7 P. MagnĂn
- 11 G. GonzĂĄlez
- 33 G. DĂaz
- 23 E. Giménez
- 35 F. Alaggia
- 1 I. Arboleda
- 17 A. Nadruz Blanco
- 18 L. BeltrĂĄn
- 8 M. Arambarri Rosa
- 3 F. Ortega
- 13 L. Rivero Cruz
- 6 A. Moreno
- 19 R. Borré Maury
- 2 T. Palacio
- 24 J. Meza
- 33 E. CenturiĂłn
- 31 F. GonzĂĄlez
- 25 L. Pereyra
- 20 G. GonzĂĄlez Apud
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