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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Atlético Tucumán - Barracas Central

10/03/2026, 08:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Atlético Tucumán
0.8
Total xG
1.6
Barracas Central
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

21%

1:0

15%

1:1

15%

0:1

14%

2:0

7%
What influences the xG?
ATBC

Atlético Tucumán

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.55
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.15
Leandro Díaz on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists)
Clever Ferreira not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
45% of goal output missing (only 68% available)

Barracas Central

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.22
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.17
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.11
Declining form (0.7 vs 1 season average)
-0.08
Tomás Porra not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 67% available)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.36
-0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético Tucumán: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 9 total)

  • 2
    Atlético Tucumán: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

38%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

50%

Under 1.5

50%

Over 2.5

23%

Under 2.5

77%

Over 3.5

8%

Under 3.5

92%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

62%

Both Score

Yes

33%

No

67%

Key Factors
  • Tactical approach: Atlético Tucumán recently adopted a counter-attacking style averaging only 35.4% possession
  • Low-scoring venue: Match history at the Estadio Monumental shows an average of only 1.2 goals per game in recent matches
  • Struggling away attack: Barracas Central's offense is currently stalling, averaging only 0.7 goals compared to their season average of 1.0
Risk Factors
  • Leandro Díaz, Clever Ferreira missing, only 68% of seasonal goal threat available
  • Tomás Porra missing, only 67% of seasonal goal threat available
  • Both teams recently showed low attacking threat, averaging fewer than 3.0 shots on target per match
Overview

Atlético Tucumán vs Barracas Central

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on October 3, 2026, 10:00 PM

Lower table clash between 13th and 9th place

Both teams desperately need points to stabilize

Form

Atlético Tucumán form: DDWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Two consecutive losses for the home side

Barracas Central form: LDDDL

The visitors are winless in their last five matches

Statistics

Atlético Tucumán scores avg. 0.85 goals and concedes avg. 1.00 goals per match

Defensively more stable at home conceding avg. 0.83 goals

Barracas Central scores avg. 0.77 goals and concedes avg. 0.85 goals

On the road the visitors concede an average of only 0.83 goals

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in history

Even record with 1 win each

Last meeting ended 2-1 for Barracas Central

Goal difference of 3-2 in favor of Barracas Central

Key Players

Lautaro Godoy in great form with 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 matches

Renzo Tesuri has recorded 2 goals in 26 season appearances

Franco Nicola contributes with 2 goals and 1 assist this season

Iván Tapia leads Barracas with 3 goals and 2 assists this season

Kevin Jappert anchors the defense with an average rating of 6.94

Nicolás Demartini has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist this season

Goalkeepers

Luis Ingolotti starts in goal for the hosts, keeping 11 clean sheets

On the other side, Marcelo Miño stars with a strong season rating of 7.31

Barracas Central has registered 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro is known as a defensively-minded venue

An average of only 1.2 total goals are scored per match at this stadium

Tucumán's home record is balanced with 10 goals scored and 10 conceded

Barracas travels with a solid away defense, conceding just 0.83 goals per game

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