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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Argentinos Juniors - Tigre

10/04/2026, 10:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Argentinos Juniors
1.6
Total xG
2.4
Tigre
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

2:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
AJTIG

Argentinos Juniors

Attack strength (1.5x league average)
+0.42
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.29
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Tigre

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap)
-0.07
Attack strength (1.21x league average)
-0.01
MartĂ­n Garay on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Mauro MĂ©ndez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.36
-0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Argentinos Juniors: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 2
    Argentinos Juniors: 73% of all goals in the second half (11 of 15, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Tigre: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

29%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Argentinos Juniors averaged a dominant 63.2% ball possession in recent matches
  • The hosts concede an extremely low seasonal average of just 0.42 goals per home game
  • The mathematical model calculates a 51% home win probability for Argentinos Juniors
Risk Factors
  • Argentinos Juniors' goalscoring has slumped recently to an average of 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.4
  • Tigre dominates the historical record with two wins from the last four meetings
  • Tigre will be missing the unselected MartĂ­n Garay and Mauro MĂ©ndez
Overview

Argentinos Juniors (3rd place, 29 points) host Tigre (10th place, 20 points) at the Estadio Diego Armando Maradona

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on October 4, 2026, 10:15 PM

The home side looks to maintain its push for the top spots

Form

Argentinos Juniors show mixed recent form with only one win in their last five matches (Form: DWDDL - W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Tigre arrive struggling with three consecutive losses (Form: WDLLL)

Statistics

Argentinos Juniors average 1.17 goals scored and only 0.79 goals conceded this season

The hosts are extremely solid at home, conceding just 0.42 goals per home game

Tigre average 1.04 goals scored and concede 1.08 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

Balanced historical record over the last 4 head-to-head matches

Tigre won twice, while Argentinos Juniors won once alongside one draw

The last meeting on March 16, 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

GastĂłn VerĂłn shines in the home attack with 4 goals this season, including 3 in his last 5 matches

NicolĂĄs Oroz controls the midfield with 2 goals and 4 assists, averaging a 7.03 rating

Francisco Álvarez anchors the defense with an outstanding seasonal rating of 7.25

For Tigre, Ignacio Russo is the main threat with 8 goals and 4 assists

Defender Alan Barrionuevo impresses with a consistent season and a rating of 7.14

Midfielder Jabes Saralegui shows rising form with 3 assists so far this season

Goalkeepers

Gonzalo Siri starts in goal for Argentinos Juniors, who have secured 13 clean sheets this season

Tigre's Felipe Zenobio has 24 appearances with a solid average rating of 6.90

Influences

Strong home advantage for the hosts, who concede only 0.42 goals per game on their own turf

The Estadio Diego Armando Maradona averages a relatively low 2.0 goals per match

The weather is ideal at 19.81°C with clear skies, perfect for a smooth game on grass

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