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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Estudiantes - Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

10/05/2026, 10:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Estudiantes
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
ESTGYEM

Estudiantes

Attack strength (1.36x league average)
+0.62
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap)
+0.08
Alexis Castro not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
Fabricio PĂ©rez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Eric Meza not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.25
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap)
-0.10
Luciano Cingolani not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.36
-0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Esteban FernĂĄndez starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (15/8 games, last 26)

  • 2
    Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 3 cards per game (33 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

27%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Stout home defense: Estudiantes concede an average of just 0.42 goals on their own turf
  • Tactical edge: The hosts averaged 62% possession and 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Model prediction: Mathematical analysis favors the hosts with a 55% win probability
Risk Factors
  • Recent scoring slump: Estudiantes scored just 0.75 goals recently compared to their 1.30 season average
  • In-form striker: AgustĂ­n MĂłdica scored five goals in his last five matches for the visitors
  • Previous head-to-head loss: The only direct meeting ended in a 1-2 defeat
Overview

Estudiantes host Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol fixture on October 5, 2026, 10:00 PM

An important clash for the home team to stay in the upper part of the table

Form

Estudiantes are struggling with a recent form of LDLWL and just one win in five matches

The visitors arrive with a more stable form of WWDLD

Mendoza drew their last game while the hosts suffered a defeat

Statistics

Estudiantes boast an extremely stable defense conceding only 0.7 goals per game this season

At home the host team concedes an average of just 0.42 goals

The visitors struggle on the road conceding an average of 2.0 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

There has been only one previous direct encounter between these sides

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza won that home match 2-1

The last meeting took place on March 18, 2026

Key Players

Adolfo Gaich is a key factor in attack with 4 goals

Leandro GonzĂĄlez PĂ­rez stabilizes the defense with a strong rating of 7.08

Not nominated: Alexis Castro (4 goals), Fabricio PĂ©rez (3 goals), Eric Meza (2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Fernando Muslera plays in goal for the hosts with a rating of 7.11 and 12 clean sheets this season

Cesar Rigamonti guards the visitors' goal with a stable rating of 7.09

Influences

The game will be played on natural grass at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Weather is steady at 17.82°C with overcast clouds

The venue history averages 2.4 goals per match

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