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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Boca Juniors - Unión Santa Fe

10/03/2026, 12:30 AM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Boca Juniors
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Unión Santa Fe
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

10%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BJUSF

Boca Juniors

Attack strength (1.25x league average)
+0.45
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.08
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Leonel Benjamín Flores on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Dylan Gorosito on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Unión Santa Fe

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.23
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.23
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap)
-0.06
Marcelo Estigarribia on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Lucas Menossi on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 96% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.37
-0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Unión Santa Fe: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Unión Santa Fe: 75% of all goals in the second half (15 of 20, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Unión Santa Fe: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Unión Santa Fe with Brahian David Cuello starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (17/7 games, last 28)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

29%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Form and home strength: Boca Juniors is unbeaten in 5 matches and scores an average of 1.45 goals at home
  • Tactical dominance: Boca Juniors averaged 56% possession and 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Mathematical advantage: The model calculates a 50% win probability for the hosts and 1.54 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Defensive weakness: Unión Santa Fe concedes an average of 1.86 goals per away game
  • Dangerous attack: Unión Santa Fe currently scores more frequently (2.4) than their season average (1.7)
Overview

Boca Juniors (2nd place, 30 points) host Unión Santa Fe (8th place, 21 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on October 3, 2026, 1:30 AM

Boca Juniors enters this home game at Estadio Alberto José Armando as the second-placed favorites

Form

Boca Juniors showing stable form (DWDWW) with two consecutive wins

Unión Santa Fe (WWWLL) suffered two consecutive defeats recently

Stats: Boca Juniors has 3 wins and 2 draws, Unión Santa Fe has 3 wins and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Boca Juniors scores an average of 1.41 goals and concedes 0.85 goals per game this season

In home matches, Boca Juniors scores 1.45 goals and concedes 0.73 on average

Unión Santa Fe averages 1.50 goals scored but concedes 1.86 goals on the road

The visitors have kept 0 clean sheets in away games this season

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in history

Boca Juniors with 1 win, Unión Santa Fe with 0 wins and 3 draws

Goal difference of 4:3 in favor of Boca Juniors

The last encounter on March 16, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

Miguel Merentiel with 8 goals and 2 assists this season

Santiago Ascacíbar contributed 5 goals and 2 assists

Leandro Paredes has an average season rating of 7.59

Cristian Tarragona is the most dangerous attacker with 14 goals

Julián Palacios impresses with 8 assists in midfield

Brahian David Cuello scored 4 league goals so far

Goalkeepers

Leandro Brey guards the net for Boca Juniors with 7 appearances this season

Matías Mansilla features for Unión Santa Fe with 28 appearances and 5 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at Estadio Alberto José Armando

Venue statistics show an average of 2.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 matches

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