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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Banfield - Rosario Central

10/06/2026, 12:15 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Banfield
1.3
Total xG
3.3
Rosario Central
2.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

1:3

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
BANRC

Banfield

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.26
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 4, 8 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.07
Santiago LĂłpez GarcĂ­a on the bench (2 goals, 5 assists)

Rosario Central

Attack strength (1.61x league average)
+1.55
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 12, 8 places gap)
+0.08
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
JĂĄminton Campaz not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Vicente TomĂĄs Pizarro Durcudoy not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.36
-0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Banfield: 6 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Banfield: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 15 total)

  • 3
    Rosario Central: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

  • 4
    Rosario Central: scored only after the break in 6 of 11 games

  • 5
    Banfield: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

22%

Draw

24%

Away Win

54%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

46%

Away or Draw

78%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model projects an away win with a 54% probability and 2.04 expected goals for Rosario Central
  • Rosario Central arrives with a better form curve (DLDWW), while Banfield is winless in five matches (LLLDD)
  • Rosario Central averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches, demonstrating more offensive activity than Banfield with 4.6
Risk Factors
  • JĂĄminton Campaz and Vicente TomĂĄs Pizarro Durcudoy are missing for the visitors, leaving only 69% of their seasonal assists available
  • Rosario Central's goal production has slowed down recently, averaging 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.4
  • Banfield's defense has shown vulnerability this season, conceding an average of 1.35 goals per game
Overview

Banfield hosts Rosario Central at the Estadio Florencio Sola

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on October 6, 2026, 1:15 AM

Banfield currently occupies 12th place with 18 points

Rosario Central visits as the 4th-placed team with 28 points

Form

Banfield is waiting for a win for five matches

The home team's form trend shows LLLDD

Rosario Central recorded two consecutive wins recently

The visitors' form trend stands at DLDWW

Statistics

Banfield scored an average of 1.08 goals per game this season

The home side conceded an average of 1.35 goals per match

Rosario Central averages 1.24 goals and concedes only 0.93 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches between the teams

Rosario Central managed to win one of those games

The last encounter on March 15, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Rosario Central

Key Players

Lautaro GĂłmez has scored 5 goals so far this season

David Zalazar contributed 2 goals and 3 assists

Ángel Di María is a key asset with 8 goals and 4 assists

Enzo Copetti scored 5 times this season and provided 1 assist

Influences

Estadio Florencio Sola features an average of 2.8 goals per match

The weather is cloudy with a temperature of 16.11°C and humidity of 67%

The home advantage is reflected in only 0.93 goals conceded per home game

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