Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
Independiente - Instituto
10/02/2026, 10:15 PM
Expected Goals
0.8
1.9
1.1
0:0
17%1:1
15%0:1
14%1:0
11%0:2
9%What influences the xG?
Independiente
Instituto
League
The Lab
- 1Instituto: first goal in 9 of 10 games (90%)
- 2Instituto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (7 of 11 total)
- 3Independiente: 38% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 13)
- 4Instituto: 38% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 13)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
26%
Draw
35%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
59%
Under 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
30%
Under 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
13%
Under 3.5
87%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
74%
No Draw
65%
Both Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Key Factors
- Offensive trend: Instituto currently scores more frequently averaging 2.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.2
- Tactical control: Independiente controlled recent matches with an average of 55% possession and averaged 4.2 shots on target
- Defensive stability: Instituto concedes an average of only 0.92 goals per match this season
Risk Factors
- Missing key player: Instituto has to play without the unlisted Fernando AlarcĂłn
- Defensive weakness away: Instituto concedes an average of 1.44 goals per away game
- Low-scoring venue: Matches at the Estadio Libertadores de América average only 1.4 goals per game this season
Overview
Independiente hosts Instituto at the Estadio Libertadores de América
Liga Profesional de FĂștbol fixture on October 2, 2026, 10:15 PM
Independiente sits in 5th place with 24 points
Instituto travels as the 9th-placed team with 21 points
A close battle in the upper mid-table
Form
Independiente enters with a form of DLWDW
The home side recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss recently
Instituto shows a form of DWLWW
The visitors achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss lately
Both teams won their respective last match
Statistics
Independiente averages 1.3 goals scored per match this season
The hosts concede an average of 1.15 goals per game
Instituto scores an average of 1.15 goals per match
Away from home, Instituto concedes an average of 1.44 goals
Independiente secured 5 clean sheets in home matches so far
Head-to-Head
There have been 4 head-to-head matches so far
The record stands at 1 win for Independiente, 2 wins for Instituto, and 1 draw
The overall goal ratio is 4 to 5 against Independiente
The last encounter on March 17, 2026, ended in a 1-2 victory for Instituto
Key Players
Santiago Montiel stands out for the hosts with 4 goals and 4 assists
MatĂas Abaldo contributed 5 goals and 3 assists this season
Alex Luna is a key asset for Instituto with 6 goals and 4 assists
Giuliano Cerato has registered 6 goals and 1 assist
Diego Sosa supports the team with 1 goal and 4 assists
Goalkeepers
Rodrigo Rey played 27 matches for Independiente with a 6.81 average rating
Marcos Ledesma made 10 appearances for Instituto with a 6.8 average rating
The home side kept 8 clean sheets throughout the season
The away team recorded 9 clean sheets in total this season
Influences
Matches at the Estadio Libertadores de América on grass average 1.4 goals
The home advantage is backed by Independiente's 1.31 home goals per match
At home, the host team conceded only 1.08 goals per game
The last direct duel at this venue ended in a scoreless draw