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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Newell's Old Boys - Lanús

10/03/2026, 08:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Newell's Old Boys
1.0
Total xG
2.6
Lanús
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%

2:1

6%

1:3

5%
What influences the xG?
NOBLAN

Newell's Old Boys

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.26
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 6, 8 places gap)
-0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.02
Full strength squad available

Lanús

Attack strength (1.41x league average)
+0.86
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 14, 8 places gap)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Felipe Peña Biafore not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
38% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.36
-0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (8 of 11 total)

  • 2
    Lanús: 6 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Newell's Old Boys: 5 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Newell's Old Boys: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (5 of 12 total)

  • 5
    Lanús: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)

  • 6
    Newell's Old Boys with Walter Mazzantti starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (17/8 games, last 26)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

23%

Draw

28%

Away Win

48%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

52%

Away or Draw

77%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Felipe Peña Biafore is missing for the visitors, leaving only 76% of the usual starting XI strength available
  • Lanús are 6th in the table and present a solid defense, conceding only 0.96 goals per game on average
  • Lanús averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Newell's 4.0
Risk Factors
  • Lanús concede an average of 1.07 goals per game in away matches
  • Newell's Old Boys are currently scoring more frequently with 1.3 goals per game than their season average of 1.1
Overview

Newell's Old Boys host Lanús at the Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on October 3, 2026, 10:00 PM

Newell's sit in 14th place with 15 points

Lanús visit as the 6th-placed team with 24 points

Mathematical predictions favor the away team

Form

Newell's Old Boys form: WDDDW

The home side is unbeaten in 5 matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws

Lanús form: DLWWW

The visitors have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Both teams won their respective last match

Statistics

Newell's average 1.00 goal and concede 1.35 goals per game

Lanús average 1.15 goals scored and 0.96 goals conceded

Newell's kept 6 clean sheets this season

Lanús kept 11 clean sheets so far

Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa averages 2.4 goals per match

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches in total

Both teams have won 1 match each

Goal difference stands at 2:6 in favor of Lanús

The last encounter ended on March 17, 2026, with a clear 5-0 victory for Lanús

Key Players

Matías Cóccaro has already scored 6 goals this season

Facundo Guch contributed with 2 goals and 4 assists

Eduardo Salvio stands out for the visitors with 2 goals and 6 assists

Carlos Izquierdoz recorded 3 goals this season as a defender

Felipe Peña Biafore with 3 goals this season is not nominated

Goalkeepers

Josué Reinatti played 15 matches with an average rating of 7.18

Reinatti has kept 6 clean sheets this season

Nahuel Losada played 25 matches with a rating of 7.1

Losada kept 11 clean sheets in this campaign

Influences

The game is played on natural grass

The BTTS rate in Newell's home games is 60%

Newell's scored 14 and conceded 14 goals in 14 home games

Lanús conceded 15 goals in 14 away matches

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