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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Defensa y Justicia - San Lorenzo

10/03/2026, 05:45 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Defensa y Justicia
1.3
Total xG
1.9
San Lorenzo
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

17%

0:0

16%

1:1

14%

2:0

12%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
DYJSL

Defensa y Justicia

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
CĂ©sar PĂ©rez not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)

San Lorenzo

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.41
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.5 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.12
Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.9 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.36
-0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    San Lorenzo: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games

  • 2
    San Lorenzo: 2.7 cards per game (28 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)

  • 3
    Defensa y Justicia: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

33%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

59%

Under 1.5

41%

Over 2.5

31%

Under 2.5

69%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

37%

No

63%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis estimates a 49% probability of a home win for Defensa y Justicia
  • Defensa y Justicia averaged 4.6 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • San Lorenzo's attack is stalling with only 0.5 goals in recent games compared to their season average of 0.91
Risk Factors
  • Defensa y Justicia has to play without A. Molinas (3 goals, 4 assists)
  • San Lorenzo struggles offensively when traveling, averaging just 0.78 goals per away game
  • Minor squad restriction for the hosts with CĂ©sar PĂ©rez (1 goal, 3 assists) not in the lineup
Overview

Defensa y Justicia hosts San Lorenzo

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on October 3, 2026, 6:45 PM

The hosts (10th place, 19 points) face the visitors (7th place, 22 points) at the Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

A tight mid-table clash with only three points separating the teams

Form

Form of Defensa y Justicia: WWLWD with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in recent games

Form of San Lorenzo: DLWDL with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

The home side enters the game in better shape than the struggling visitors

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Defensa y Justicia scores an average of 1.19 goals and concedes 1.23 per game this season

San Lorenzo averages only 0.74 goals scored and 0.89 goals conceded

The visitors boast a strong defense but struggle severely in attack

Away from home, San Lorenzo concedes 1.00 goal per game on average

Head-to-Head

A total of 2 head-to-head matches in the database

The last meeting ended in a clear 5-2 home victory for Defensa y Justicia on March 16, 2026

Goal difference stands at 5-2 in favor of the hosts

Key Players

David Barbona shines for Defensa y Justicia with a 7.20 rating, scoring 1 goal and delivering 2 assists in the last 5 matches

Leandro FernĂĄndez recently contributed 2 goals and 1 assist

San Lorenzo's Facundo FarĂ­as holds a 7.12 rating with 1 goal scored

Goalkeepers

MatĂ­as Borgogno guards the goal for Defensa y Justicia with 7 clean sheets this season

José Devecchi stands in goal for San Lorenzo, recording an impressive 13 clean sheets

Both keepers averaged ratings above 7.00 in their last 5 appearances

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Venue stats show an average of 2.4 goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of the last 5 matches at this venue

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