Match report →
Unión Santa Fe – Defensa y Justicia0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Unión Santa Fe
1.29
Total xG
2.34
Defensa y Justicia
1.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Unión Santa Fe | Defensa y Justicia |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.34x league average) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Julián Palacios on the bench (3 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Marcelo Estigarribia on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Brahian David Cuello on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Lucas Menossi not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 64% available) | ||
| A. Molinas not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form discrepancy: While Defensa y Justicia has been stable (3 wins in 5 games), Unión Santa Fe suffered three consecutive defeats
- Home defensive strength: Unión Santa Fe concedes an average of only 0.87 goals in front of their home crowd
- Tarragona's scoring form: Attacker Cristian Tarragona scored 5 goals in his last 5 matches
Risks
- Severe squad depletion: Julián Palacios, Marcelo Estigarribia, Brahian David Cuello, and Lucas Menossi are missing, leaving only 64% of the goal threat available
- Creative loss: Midfielder A. Molinas is out injured for Defensa y Justicia, missing his contribution of 3 goals and 4 assists this season
All probabilities
Result
Unión Santa Fe40%
Draw31%
Defensa y Justicia29%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Double chance
Unión Santa Fe or draw71%
Defensa y Justicia or draw60%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
11%
0:1
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Unión Santa Fe: 78% of all goals in the second half (14 of 18, last 12 games)
- Unión Santa Fe: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Unión Santa Fe: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 18)
- Defensa y Justicia: 65% of all goals in the first half (11 of 17, last 12 games)
- Cristian Tarragona: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Defensa y Justicia: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Unión Santa Fe 4-4-2 · Defensa y Justicia 4-2-3-1
Unión Santa Fe
- 21 M. Mansilla
- 27 T. Rubio
- 4 M. Rocha Calderón
- 26 J. Ludueña
- 18 L. Ayala
- 11 M. Luna Diale
- 8 E. Giaccone
- 17 J. Mosqueira
- 10 V. Malcorra
- 25 C. Tarragona
- 43 E. Ramírez
Defensa y Justicia
- 1 M. Borgogno
- 28 V. Pucheta Loza
- 29 D. Fernández
- 21 H. Martínez
- 30 D. Domínguez
- 15 S. Sosa Yung
- 8 C. Pérez Maldonado
- 26 J. Lucco
- 19 D. Barbona
- 24 J. Gutiérrez Freire
- 9 L. Fernández
Substitutes
- 23 A. Solari
- 20 J. Palacios
- 22 B. Cuello
- 31 M. Aguirre
- 40 L. Meuli Palma
- 19 M. Estigarribia
- 12 B. Pittón
- 15 J. Pintado Leines
- 36 M. Aimar
- 34 M. Peresutti
- 38 V. Cerrudo
- 33 I. Isla
- 20 J. Palavecino
- 11 T. Perrotta
- 36 L. Amade
- 17 A. Hausch
- 16 A. Portillo
- 32 N. Roselli
- 5 J. López
- 7 T. Pérez
- 22 M. Porcel
- 27 D. Blanco
- 40 M. Rodríguez
- 6 E. Burdin Márquez
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →