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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol10/11/2026, 08:00 PM

Rosario Central – Independiente Rivadavia5 : 0

Why the model thinks so

Rosario Central
1.01
Total xG
1.82
Independiente Rivadavia
0.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorRosario CentralIndependiente Rivadavia
Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match)−0.34−0.34
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1 league avg)+0.29
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)−0.17
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)−0.11
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)−0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)+0.06
Fabrizio Sartori on the bench (8 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Tactical strength: Independiente Rivadavia averaged 7.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Form trend: Independiente Rivadavia won 3 of their last 5 matches and currently average 2.0 goals per game, higher than their season average
  • Pipeline prediction: The model calculates a 38% home win probability with 1.01 to 0.81 expected goals

Risks

  • Away defensive weakness: Independiente Rivadavia concede an average of 1.50 goals per away match
  • Squad absences: R. Macagno (Muscle Tear) and M. Salas (Cruciate Ligament Injury) are unavailable for Independiente Rivadavia

All probabilities

Result
Rosario Central38%
Draw36%
Independiente Rivadavia27%
Goals
Over 1.556%
Under 1.544%
Over 2.527%
Under 2.573%
Over 3.511%
Under 3.589%
Double chance
Rosario Central or draw73%
Independiente Rivadavia or draw62%
No draw64%
Both teams score
Yes37%
No63%

Most likely scores

0:0
18%
1:1
15%
1:0
15%
0:1
11%
2:0
8%
5:0
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Álex Arce: 5 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
  2. Rosario Central: 3.2 cards per game (36 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
  3. Rosario Central: scored only after the break in 6 of 11 games
  4. Rosario Central: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (7 points rescued)
  5. Independiente Rivadavia with Álex Arce  starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1.3 (11/9 games, last 28)

Lineups

Rosario Central 4-2-3-1 · Independiente Rivadavia 4-2-3-1

Rosario Central
  • 23 J. Ledesma
  • 32 E. Coronel
  • 46 I. Ovando
  • 13 G. Ávila
  • 3 A. SĂĄndez
  • 5 F. Ibarra
  • 20 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
  • 31 F. Navarro
  • 11 Á. Di MarĂ­a HernĂĄndez
  • 8 J. Campaz
  • 22 E. Copetti
Independiente Rivadavia
  • 30 N. Bolcato
  • 14 L. GĂłmez
  • 2 L. Costa MartĂ­nez
  • 42 S. Studer
  • 3 J. Elordi
  • 5 T. Bottari
  • 25 J. FlorentĂ­n Bobadilla
  • 11 G. RĂ­os
  • 77 L. Sequeira
  • 10 M. FernĂĄndez
  • 9 A. Arce Barrios
Substitutes
  • 10 F. Cervi
  • 33 A. Soto
  • 26 G. Cantizano
  • 9 M. Ruben RodrĂ­guez
  • 18 J. FernĂĄndez
  • 38 D. Fernandez
  • 24 J. GimĂ©nez
  • 6 J. Komar
  • 15 F. Mallo Blanco
  • 42 E. VerĂłn
  • 16 T. Badaloni
  • 2 S. Zaracho
  • 13 A. Osella
  • 40 I. Villalba Chamorro
  • 21 E. GĂłmez Riga
  • 27 D. Mayans
  • 19 R. Atencio
  • 43 F. Sartori Prieto
  • 7 V. Ramis
  • 8 L. Bucca
  • 34 S. Moreyra
  • 28 A. Vigo
  • 80 M. Reali
  • 23 L. DĂ­az

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