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River Plate – Estudiantes de Río Cuarto1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
River Plate
2.07
Total xG
2.67
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.60
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | River Plate | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | +1.01 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.75 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.39 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.21 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (0.8 vs 0.5 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Thiago Almada on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical model calculates a 71% home win probability with 2.07 predicted home goals
- Form gap: River Plate won 3 of their last 5 matches (DWWWL), Estudiantes de Río Cuarto winless in 5 (DLLLL)
- Tactical superiority: River Plate averaged 5.8 shots on target and 2.2 goals per match in recent games
Risks
- River Plate enters the match after a 22-day break since their last game
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away match
- Not included in River Plate's starting XI: Thiago Almada (2 goals)
All probabilities
Result
River Plate71%
Draw21%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto8%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Double chance
River Plate or draw92%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw29%
No draw79%
Both teams score
Yes41%
No59%
Most likely scores
2:0
15%
3:0
10%
1:1
10%
2:1
9%
3:1
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- River Plate: 8 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- River Plate with Sebastián Driussi starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (19/10 games, last 30)
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 11 total)
- River Plate: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- River Plate: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
Lineups
River Plate 4-3-2-1 · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 5-3-2
River Plate
- 41 S. Beltrán
- 29 G. Montiel
- 28 L. Martínez Quarta
- 30 N. Otamendi
- 21 M. Acuña
- 50 T. Andrada
- 15 F. Vera
- 26 T. Galván
- 10 Á. Correa Martínez
- 9 S. Driussi
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- 38 L. Herrera
- 6 J. Antonini
- 2 G. Maffini
- 30 S. Ojeda
- 29 A. Quiroga
- 23 F. Rodríguez
- 10 T. González
- 5 A. Cabrera
- 17 G. Alanís
- 77 I. Hesar
- 22 M. Valiente
Substitutes
- 18 L. Beltrán
- 8 M. Arambarri Rosa
- 23 T. Almada
- 13 L. Rivero Cruz
- 6 A. Moreno
- 19 R. Borré Maury
- 2 T. Palacio
- 24 J. Meza
- 33 E. Centurión
- 31 F. González
- 25 L. Pereyra
- 44 L.Silva
- 20 G. González Apud
- 8 S. Rosane
- 31 M. Valenti
- 12 F. Gualtieri
- 28 F. Cobos
- 9 J. Ferreira
- 32 M. Bajamich
- 11 M. Garnerone
- 14 G. Gonzalez
- 3 L. Baños
- 16 Y. Moreno Murillo
- 18 J. Rivero
- 99 J. Chala Castillo
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