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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol10/11/2026, 10:15 PM

Racing Club – Belgrano0 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Racing Club
1.52
Total xG
2.66
Belgrano
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorRacing ClubBelgrano
Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match)−0.34−0.34
Attack strength (1.24x league average)+0.28
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)−0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)+0.10
Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)−0.06
MatĂ­as Zaracho on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Marcos Rojo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez on the bench (6 goals, 5 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Racing Club averaged 5.6 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Belgrano averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches and remain unbeaten in 5 games
  • Racing Club won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches scoring 11 goals and conceding 5

Risks

  • Racing Club are without M. Di Cesare (17 season appearances) due to a broken ankle
  • Belgrano's top scorer NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez (6 goals, 5 assists) is not in the starting lineup
  • Racing Club concede avg 1.14 goals per home game with only 2 home clean sheets in 14 matches

All probabilities

Result
Racing Club44%
Draw29%
Belgrano27%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Double chance
Racing Club or draw73%
Belgrano or draw56%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Belgrano: 8 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
  2. Belgrano: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Estudiantes de RĂ­o Cuarto: 2 goals (82', 90+5')
  3. Racing Club: 3.1 cards per game (34 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
  4. Racing Club: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  5. Belgrano: 80% of all goals in the second half (12 of 15, last 12 games)
  6. Belgrano: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (7 points rescued)

Lineups

Racing Club 4-1-4-1 · Belgrano 4-2-3-1

Racing Club
  • 25 F. Cambeses
  • 4 E. Cannavo
  • 38 M. MartĂ­nez
  • 43 G. Escudero
  • 19 I. RodrĂ­guez
  • 33 L. PĂ©rez
  • 32 L. DĂ­az
  • 16 D. Ortegoza
  • 20 G. Lodico
  • 17 T. Conechny
  • 9 A. MartĂ­nez
Belgrano
  • 23 M. Vicentini
  • 14 L. Morales
  • 2 A. Maldonado
  • 17 L. LĂłpez
  • 3 A. Sporle
  • 21 A. SĂĄnchez
  • 20 F. VĂĄzquez
  • 24 E. Rigoni
  • 10 L. ZelarayĂĄn
  • 8 R. Hernandes
  • 9 L. Passerini
Substitutes
  • 18 L. Espino GarcĂ­a
  • 10 M. Miljevic
  • 14 J. Barinaga
  • 11 F. Zaracho
  • 30 M. Tagliamonte
  • 7 D. Vergara HernĂĄndez
  • 23 N. Colombo
  • 22 E. Torres
  • 24 A. FernĂĄndez
  • 46 A. Tello
  • 7 L. Vergara
  • 5 C. Kranevitter
  • 22 D. Torres
  • 2 M. PĂ©rez
  • 30 G. ZelarayĂĄn
  • 26 A. BenĂ­tez Cabrera
  • 37 L. Gutierrez
  • 22 N. FernĂĄndez
  • 5 S. Longo
  • 53 J. Velazquez
  • 11 F. GonzĂĄlez Metilli
  • 25 T. Cardozo Brugman
  • 16 F. Ricca Rostagnol
  • 13 ?. Ocampo
  • 15 R. TuliĂĄn
  • 45 A. FalcĂłn

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