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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol10/10/2026, 08:00 PM

Central Cordoba SdE – Estudiantes2 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Central Cordoba SdE
0.98
Total xG
2.14
Estudiantes
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorCentral Cordoba SdEEstudiantes
Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match)−0.34−0.34
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap)−0.13
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap)+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)−0.05
Rising form (1 vs 0.8 season average)+0.05
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)−0.01
JoaquĂ­n Tobio Burgos on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
GastĂłn Benedetti on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Santiago NĂșñez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Ezequiel Piovi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Eric Meza not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Table gap: League leaders Estudiantes (31 points) face 13th-placed Central Cordoba SdE (16 points)
  • Tactical dominance: Estudiantes averaged 6.2 shots on target and 57% possession in recent matches
  • Model prediction: Calculations favor Estudiantes with a 38% win probability and a 71% double chance likelihood

Risks

  • Squad rotation for Estudiantes: JoaquĂ­n Tobio Burgos, GastĂłn Benedetti, Santiago NĂșñez, Ezequiel Piovi, and Eric Meza are not in the starting XI
  • Away defensive vulnerability: Estudiantes concede an average of 1.38 goals per away match

All probabilities

Result
Central Cordoba SdE29%
Draw33%
Estudiantes38%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Double chance
Central Cordoba SdE or draw62%
Estudiantes or draw71%
No draw67%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%

Most likely scores

1:1
15%
0:0
13%
0:1
12%
1:0
10%
0:2
8%
2:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Central Cordoba SdE: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
  2. Estudiantes: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 3 goals (83', 90', 90+4')
  3. Central Cordoba SdE: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games

Lineups

Central Cordoba SdE 4-2-3-1 · Estudiantes 4-2-3-1

Central Cordoba SdE
  • 1 A. Aguerre
  • 20 F. MartĂ­nez SĂĄnchez
  • 21 F. Aguilar Mendoza
  • 2 A. Maciel
  • 23 J. CĂĄceres Ovelar
  • 22 M. Vera
  • 18 L. GonzĂĄlez MartĂ­nez
  • 28 L. Sequeira
  • 10 M. Iacobellis
  • 7 D. Barrera
  • 27 M. Santos Rosadilla
Estudiantes
  • 1 F. Iacovich
  • 15 S. Arzamendia Duarte
  • 14 L. GonzĂĄlez PĂ­rez
  • 26 J. Funes Mori
  • 24 T. Palacios
  • 52 B. Kociubinski
  • 22 A. Castro
  • 29 F. PĂ©rez Escudero
  • 34 M. Monsalve GonzĂĄles
  • 18 E. CetrĂ© Angulo
  • 19 A. Gaich
Substitutes
  • 13 J. GĂłmez
  • 55 J. Cardozo LĂłpez
  • 25 J. Vallejos
  • 17 Y. Casermeiro
  • 11 H. Tijanovich
  • 3 L. Marchi Rivero
  • 9 L. Varaldo
  • 47 M. Cuitiño
  • 32 N. Garrido
  • 31 B. Gallego RodrĂ­guez
  • 12 R. Borzone
  • 40 E. Mancuso
  • 10 T. Palacios
  • 7 J. Sosa
  • 27 L. Alario
  • 28 B. Aguirre
  • 17 J. Tobio Burgos
  • 4 S. NĂșñez
  • 21 L. Piovi
  • 13 G. Benedetti Taffarel

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