Match report →
Barracas Central – Huracán2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Barracas Central
1.00
Total xG
2.02
Huracán
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Barracas Central | Huracán |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.27 | |
| Rising form (1.3 vs 1 season average) | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Tomás Porra not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Leonardo Gil on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Balanced forecast: Model calculates 33% home win, 33% away win, and 34% draw probability
- Defensive strength: Huracán concede avg. 0.83 goals and Barracas Central avg. 0.89 goals per match
- Form advantage: Huracán remain unbeaten in 5 matches with form DDWWW
Risks
- Barracas Central averaged only 2.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Barracas Central scored only 11 goals in 13 home games (avg. 0.85 per home match)
All probabilities
Result
Barracas Central32%
Draw34%
Huracán33%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Double chance
Barracas Central or draw67%
Huracán or draw68%
No draw66%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
0:1
12%
1:0
12%
1:2
7%
2:0
Final score
Lineups
Barracas Central 4-4-2 · Huracán 4-2-3-1
Barracas Central
- 30 M. Miño
- 14 K. Jappert
- 15 Y. Rak Barragán
- 31 N. Demartini
- 17 E. Pereyra
- 28 R. Bogarín Giménez
- 5 D. Miloc
- 10 I. Tapia
- 24 E. Taborda
- 34 N. Orsini
- 11 N. Briasco Belekyan
Huracán
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 2 L. Blondel
- 6 F. Pereyra
- 35 M. Palazzo
- 25 C. Ibáñez
- 5 R. Fernández Cedrés
- 15 F. Waller Martiarena
- 7 O. Cortés Cortés
- 24 F. Kalinger di Napoli
- 17 J. Bisanz
- 9 J. Caicedo Medina
Substitutes
- 23 W. Rivera
- 1 J. Espínola González
- 35 E. Rolón
- 36 T. Lavezzi
- 6 R. Insúa
- 37 G. Campi
- 33 G. Maroni
- 2 N. Capraro
- 13 R. Barrios
- 77 F. Bruera
- 16 I. Guaraz
- 22 V. Gandín
- 4 F. Vera
- 20 P. Ojeda
- 8 L. Gil
- 11 T. Peralta Ortiz
- 10 Ó. Romero Villamayor
- 21 H. Nervo
- 34 I. Campo
- 32 S. Meza
- 19 L. Lescano
- 23 I. Pussetto
- 33 B. Barticciotto
- 41 L. Mora
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