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Talleres Córdoba – Independiente0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Talleres Córdoba
1.51
Total xG
2.80
Independiente
1.29
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Talleres Córdoba | Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 0.9 league avg) | +0.36 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Franco Cristaldo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Agustín Álvarez not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Maximiliano Meza not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Leonardo Godoy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 95% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical analysis gives Talleres Córdoba a 41% win chance with 1.51 to 1.29 expected goals
- Talleres Córdoba recently averaged 5.2 shots on target with 57% possession
- Talleres Córdoba won 3 of the 4 head-to-head matches against Independiente
Risks
- Talleres Córdoba shows a declining trend in attack, averaging only 0.8 goals per match recently
- Independiente conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Talleres Córdoba41%
Draw28%
Independiente31%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Double chance
Talleres Córdoba or draw69%
Independiente or draw59%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Talleres Córdoba: 3.2 cards per game (32 yellows, 6 reds in 12 games)
- Talleres Córdoba: 10 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Talleres Córdoba 4-2-3-1 · Independiente 4-2-3-1
Talleres Córdoba
- 32 L. Unsain
- 20 A. Schott
- 4 M. Catalán
- 6 R. Riquelme
- 23 G. Báez Corradi
- 8 F. Fattori Mouzo
- 5 M. Galarza
- 37 R. Lima Morais
- 10 G. Baroni
- 11 V. Depietri
- 49 V. Dávila
Independiente
- 33 R. Rey
- 4 S. Arias Naranjo
- 36 S. Valdez
- 35 J. Arrayago
- 5 N. Banegas
- 16 M. Curci
- 23 I. Marcone
- 7 S. Montiel
- 10 L. Cabral
- 19 M. Abaldo Menyou
- 6 L. Ávila
Substitutes
- 13 V. Fascendini
- 19 F. Cristaldo
- 7 D. Valoyes Ruíz
- 3 A. Maidana Mendieta
- 2 T. Chamorro
- 36 E. Chiavassa
- 1 S. Barbi
- 15 J. Sforza
- 26 M. Caceres
- 44 S. Fernández
- 39 L. Fabián Ortiz
- 31 B. Trey
- 77 S. Mele Castanero
- 14 G. Millán
- 9 I. Morales Bravo
- 13 J. Fedorco
- 29 L. Godoy
- 24 J. Palais
- 30 T. Parmo
- 34 F.Tempone
- 32 R. Martínez
- 20 F. Cruz
- 2 F. Calderón
- 39 R. Martino
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