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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol10/09/2026, 05:30 PM

Aldosivi – Sarmiento1 : 3

Why the model thinks so

Aldosivi
1.02
Total xG
2.03
Sarmiento
1.01
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorAldosiviSarmiento
Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match)−0.35−0.35
Attack weakness (0.69x league average)−0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)+0.23
Rising form (1.6 vs 0.8 season average)+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)+0.06
Andrés Vombergar not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
JuliĂĄn Contrera on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Santiago Salle on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Attacking upward trend: Aldosivi currently scores more frequently on average (1.6) than their season average (0.8)
  • Tactical contrast: Aldosivi averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, while Sarmiento operates counter-oriented with 35% possession
  • Balanced forecast: The mathematical model calculates almost identical probabilities of 33% for a home win, 34% for a draw, and 33% for an away win

Risks

  • Sarmiento shows extreme away weakness, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per away match
  • Aldosivi struggles in front of their home crowd, scoring an average of just 0.64 home goals per game

All probabilities

Result
Aldosivi33%
Draw34%
Sarmiento33%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Double chance
Aldosivi or draw67%
Sarmiento or draw67%
No draw66%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%

Most likely scores

1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
12%
0:1
12%
2:1
7%
1:3
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Aldosivi: dropped a lead in 5 of 6 games (13 points lost)

Lineups

Aldosivi 4-4-1-1 · Sarmiento 4-3-3

Aldosivi
  • 23 I. Chicco
  • 4 R. GonzĂĄlez
  • 2 L. Sigali
  • 33 N. Zalazar
  • 13 B. CufrĂ©
  • 10 O. GaitĂĄn
  • 5 N. Linares
  • 19 L. Nahuel Castro
  • 11 B. Palavecino
  • 8 MartĂ­n Adolfo GarcĂ­a
  • 9 N. Cordero
Sarmiento
  • 12 T. Ayala
  • 20 U. GimĂ©nez
  • 44 R. Orihuela Barcos
  • 2 J. Insaurralde
  • 3 L. SuĂĄrez Scalarea
  • 23 E. GimĂ©nez
  • 15 C. Zabala
  • 16 M. MartĂ­nez
  • 10 J. RenterĂ­a Arias
  • 27 J. Marabel Jara
  • 21 J. Mavilla
Substitutes
  • 27 T. FernĂĄndez
  • 7 N. GuzmĂĄn
  • 80 L. ChĂĄvez
  • 28 S. Moya
  • 25 N. Breitenbruch
  • 16 B. DadĂ­n
  • 15 F. Perruzzi
  • 17 F. Laurelli
  • 24 F. Anso
  • 21 M. Godoy
  • 18 A. ChĂĄvez
  • 24 J. Herrera
  • 29 T. SantamarĂ­a
  • 6 G. Arturia
  • 77 N. Pasquini
  • 7 P. MagnĂ­n
  • 8 S. Salle
  • 11 G. GonzĂĄlez
  • 19 J. Contrera
  • 33 G. DĂ­az
  • 5 M. GarcĂ­a
  • 1 I. Arboleda
  • 17 A. Nadruz Blanco

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