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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol10/09/2026, 10:30 PM

Instituto – Boca Juniors2 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Instituto
1.03
Total xG
2.01
Boca Juniors
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorInstitutoBoca Juniors
Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match)−0.35−0.35
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)+0.33
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.3 season average)+0.33
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)−0.25
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)+0.19
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)+0.19
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches−0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 2, 7 places gap)−0.08
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)−0.06
Attack strength (1.7x league average)−0.06
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 9, 7 places gap)+0.03
Miguel Merentiel  on the bench (8 goals, 2 assists)
Santiago AscacĂ­bar on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Alan Velasco  not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Dylan Gorosito on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
64% of goal output missing (only 57% available)
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Current form trend: Both teams scored more in recent matches than their season average (Instituto 2.4 vs 1.3, Boca 2.2 vs 1.6)
  • Tactical dominance: Boca Juniors recently averaged 6.0 shots on target with 60% possession
  • Balanced forecast: The mathematical analysis expects a tight match with a 34% home win and 34% draw, showing 1.03 to 0.98 expected goals

Risks

  • Miguel Merentiel, Santiago AscacĂ­bar, Alan Velasco, and Dylan Gorosito are missing for the visitors, leaving only 57% of the usual goal threat available
  • Low scoring probability: The mathematical model calculates the probability of over 2.5 goals at only 33%

All probabilities

Result
Instituto34%
Draw34%
Boca Juniors32%
Goals
Over 1.561%
Under 1.539%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.514%
Under 3.586%
Double chance
Instituto or draw68%
Boca Juniors or draw66%
No draw66%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%

Most likely scores

1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
12%
0:1
11%
2:0
7%
2:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Instituto: first goal in 9 of 10 games (90%)
  2. Boca Juniors: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against UniĂłn Santa Fe: 2 goals (83', 90+2')
  3. Boca Juniors: 7 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
  4. Instituto: 81% of all goals in the second half (13 of 16, last 11 games)
  5. Instituto: 38% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 16)
  6. Instituto: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (5 of 16 total)

Lineups

Instituto 3-4-2-1 · Boca Juniors 4-2-3-1

Instituto
  • 29 M. Ledesma
  • 30 J. GalvĂĄn
  • 26 L. Mosevich
  • 6 F. AlarcĂłn
  • 44 G. Cerato
  • 55 G. AbregĂș
  • 15 M. Gallardo
  • 3 D. Sosa
  • 21 J. LĂĄzaro
  • 10 A. Luna
  • 17 M. Tissera
Boca Juniors
  • 1 Á. Montero Perales
  • 27 M. Braida
  • 2 L. Di Lollo
  • 26 M. Pellegrino
  • 3 L. Blanco
  • 15 W. AlarcĂłn Cepeda
  • 18 M. Delgado
  • 19 L. Flores
  • 7 C. Palacios NĂșñez
  • 22 S. Villa Cano
  • 13 E. Valencia Lastra
Substitutes
  • 19 L. Sanseviero
  • 7 N. Guerra
  • 13 J. MĂ©ndez
  • 2 H. De La Fuente
  • 20 J. CĂłrdoba Mosquera
  • 9 F. SuĂĄrez
  • 11 M. Fonseca
  • 22 A. Massaccesi
  • 32 A. Bravo
  • 8 H. Acevedo
  • 35 E. Sittaro Miranda
  • 23 J. Meli
  • 5 L. Paredes
  • 11 Á. Romero Villamayor
  • 6 R. Battaglia
  • 9 M. GimĂ©nez
  • 32 A. Costa
  • 25 S. AscacĂ­bar
  • 4 J. Figal
  • 12 L. Brey
  • 16 M. Merentiel Serrano
  • 24 D. Gorosito
  • 42 F. Herrera
  • 53 J. RuĂ­z

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