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Lanús – Vélez Sarsfield2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Lanús
1.33
Total xG
2.19
Vélez Sarsfield
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lanús | Vélez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Felipe Peña Biafore on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Matías Pellegrini not in squad (3 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Manuel Lanzini not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home advantage signal: Model calculations indicate a 46% home win chance for Lanús with 1.33 expected goals
- Rising attack trend: Lanús are currently scoring more frequently (1.5) than their seasonal average (1.3)
- Tactical metric: Vélez Sarsfield averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Key player absences: Matías Pellegrini and Manuel Lanzini are missing from the Vélez Sarsfield starting lineup
- Low goal expectation: The model estimates only a 38% probability for over 2.5 total goals
All probabilities
Result
Lanús46%
Draw32%
Vélez Sarsfield23%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Double chance
Lanús or draw77%
Vélez Sarsfield or draw54%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lanús: 6 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Lanús: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Lanús: 46% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 13)
- Yoshan Valois: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Vélez Sarsfield: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Lanús 4-2-3-1 · Vélez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
Lanús
- 26 N. Losada
- 33 T. Guidara
- 24 C. Izquierdoz
- 13 J. Canale Domínguez
- 6 S. Marcich
- 17 D. Medina
- 30 A. Cardozo
- 77 L. Besozzi
- 10 D. Moreno
- 11 E. Salvio
- 20 A. Wlk Dure
Vélez Sarsfield
- 1 T. Marchiori Carreño
- 4 J. García
- 32 T. Silvero
- 16 L. Magallán
- 3 E. Gómez
- 29 R. Aliendro
- 8 L. Robertone
- 35 M. Arias
- 37 J. Policella
- 39 T. Aguirre
- 77 R. Martínez Rolón
Substitutes
- 35 R. Dejesús López
- 16 M. Sepúlveda Méndez
- 4 Gonzalo Pérez
- 1 F. Petroli
- 19 Y. Valois Murillo
- 23 R. Carrera
- 5 F. Peña Biafore
- 8 F. Watson
- 3 N. Morgantini
- 15 R. Loaiza Morelos
- 38 B. Acosta
- 42 G. Lobos
- 10 D. Valdés Contreras
- 23 F. Sanguinetti
- 17 A. Zahir Verón
- 15 D. Godoy
- 21 J. Gordon
- 19 L. Cristaldo Florentín
- 5 C. Baeza Baeza
- 48 L.Feler
- 47 A. Pereyra
- 18 Simón Escobar
- 30 L. Piola
- 46 U. Piedrabuena
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