Match report â
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza â Newell's Old Boys1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
1.42
Total xG
2.24
Newell's Old Boys
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza | Newell's Old Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | +0.36 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | â0.35 | â0.35 |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | â0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | â0.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | â0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | â0.04 | |
| TomĂĄs O'Connor on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jeronimo Russo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home solidity vs. away struggle: Gimnasia concede just 0.69 goals per home match, while Newell's concede 1.75 away
- Model prediction: Mathematical modeling estimates a 50% home win probability for Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (1.42 expected goals)
- Key goalscorer: AgustĂn MĂłdica poses a major threat for the home side with 12 season goals
Risks
- Newell's Old Boys concede an average of 1.75 goals per away match
- Both teams averaged just 3.4 shots on target per match in their recent 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza50%
Draw30%
Newell's Old Boys20%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Double chance
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza or draw80%
Newell's Old Boys or draw50%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
14%
0:0
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 11 total)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Esteban FernĂĄndez starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (16/8 games, last 27)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 6 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Newell's Old Boys: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Newell's Old Boys: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (4 of 11 total)
Lineups
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 4-2-3-1 · Newell's Old Boys 4-3-3
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- 23 C. Rigamonti
- 32 L. Paredes
- 2 D. Mondino
- 4 E. Muñoz
- 3 M. Recalde
- 21 F. Antonini
- 30 E. FernĂĄndez
- 26 F. Lencioni
- 8 M. Vargas MartĂn
- 7 L. Cingolani
- 9 A. MĂłdica
Newell's Old Boys
- 30 J. Reinatti Balansino
- 6 M. Ortega
- 25 B. Cabrera
- 16 L. Carrizo
- 24 F. Escobar
- 26 R. Herrera
- 5 L. Regiardo
- 20 F. Guch
- 7 W. Mazzantti
- 9 M. CĂłccaro Ferreira
- 32 S. Solari
Substitutes
- 11 S. RodrĂguez
- 35 V. Simoni
- 22 J. Franco Arrellaga
- 19 J. Ceballos
- 15 U. SĂĄnchez
- 28 T. O'Connor
- 27 B. Armoa NĂșñez
- 33 O. Andrada
- 5 N. Barboza
- 42 L. Carrera
- 31 L. Petruchi
- 16 G. Guiffrey
- 25 M. Ăbeda James
- 27 L. GĂłmez
- 33 W. NĂșñez
- 19 J. GĂłmez Mattar
- 22 O. SalomĂłn
- 99 J. RamĂrez Polero
- 28 J. Russo
- 23 N. Goitea
- 4 A. Montero
- 36 F. Scarpeccio
- 39 L.Rios
- 15 A. Soñora
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