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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol10/10/2026, 10:15 PM

Tigre – Banfield1 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Tigre
1.61
Total xG
2.75
Banfield
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorTigreBanfield
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1 league avg)+0.49
Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match)−0.34−0.34
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)−0.14
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)−0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)+0.07
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.2 season average)+0.07
Santiago LĂłpez GarcĂ­a on the bench (2 goals, 5 assists)
Lautaro GĂłmez not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
54% of goal output missing (only 94% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Mathematical model calculates a 47% home win probability for Tigre with 1.61 expected goals
  • Banfield's lineup is missing key players Lautaro GĂłmez (5 goals) and Santiago LĂłpez GarcĂ­a (2 goals, 5 assists)
  • Banfield averaged 13.4 total shots and 4.4 shots on target in recent matches using a counter-oriented setup

Risks

  • Tigre are in a slump with 4 consecutive losses
  • Banfield concede an average of 1.91 goals per away game
  • Banfield have only 4 days of rest since their last match under rainy conditions

All probabilities

Result
Tigre47%
Draw28%
Banfield26%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Tigre or draw74%
Banfield or draw53%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%

Most likely scores

1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Banfield: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
  2. Tigre: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
  3. Banfield: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 15 total)
  4. Banfield: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
  5. Tigre: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)

Lineups

Tigre 4-4-2 · Banfield 4-2-3-1

Tigre
  • 12 F. Zenobio
  • 4 V. Moreno
  • 2 J. Laso
  • 20 A. Barrionuevo
  • 24 F. Álvarez
  • 10 J. Saralegui
  • 27 S. GonzĂĄlez
  • 5 B. Leyes Sosa
  • 22 S. LĂłpez Grobin
  • 30 J. Domina
  • 29 I. Russo Cordero
Banfield
  • 50 D. RodrĂ­guez
  • 4 J. Alfaro
  • 2 S. Daniele
  • 6 N. Meriano
  • 27 L. Abraham
  • 5 S. Esquivel
  • 20 T. AdoryĂĄn
  • 18 F. Medina
  • 7 L. Piñero
  • 40 D. Zalazar
  • 9 A. Balboa Camacho
Substitutes
  • 19 A. Oviedo Álvarez
  • 11 T. Serrago
  • 32 J. Villalba
  • 8 M. Garay
  • 17 G. Soto Arredondo
  • 18 M. FernĂĄndez
  • 25 I. Subiabre
  • 50 I. Peluffo
  • 23 G. Requena
  • 40 L. Minniti
  • 47 S.ebastian Lezcano
  • 26 L. Morales
  • 24 S. LĂłpez Garcia
  • 77 T. RodrĂ­guez Trogsar
  • 35 I. Pais MayĂĄn
  • 30 F. Anselmo
  • 25 G. Santilli
  • 21 L. Villegas
  • 13 B. Zacarias Oviedo
  • 3 N. Paz
  • 28 M. HernĂĄndez
  • 16 J. Acosta
  • 19 L. Cano
  • 37 R. Malanca

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