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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol10/11/2026, 08:00 PM

Platense – Argentinos Juniors1 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Platense
0.75
Total xG
1.66
Argentinos Juniors
0.91
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorPlatenseArgentinos Juniors
Attack weakness (0.64x league average)−0.59
Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match)−0.34−0.34
Attack weakness (0.72x league average)−0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)−0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 3, 9 places gap)−0.07
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)−0.04
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 12, 9 places gap)+0.04
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg)−0.03
Hernån López Muñoz on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 79% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Table gap: Argentinos Juniors (3rd place, 29 points) face Platense (12th place, 16 points), model calculates a draw at 38% and away win at 36%
  • Tactical dominance: Argentinos Juniors averaged 60% possession and 4.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Low goal expectation: Model projects 0.75 expected home goals and 0.91 away goals with only 23% probability for over 2.5 goals

Risks

  • Squad constraint: HernĂĄn LĂłpez Muñoz is missing from the starting lineup for Argentinos Juniors, leaving 79% of normal goal threat available
  • Away defensive concern: Argentinos Juniors concede an average of 1.50 goals per away match
  • Vulnerable home defense: Platense concede an average of 1.70 goals per match at home

All probabilities

Result
Platense27%
Draw38%
Argentinos Juniors36%
Goals
Over 1.551%
Under 1.549%
Over 2.523%
Under 2.577%
Over 3.59%
Under 3.591%
Double chance
Platense or draw64%
Argentinos Juniors or draw73%
No draw62%
Both teams score
Yes33%
No67%

Most likely scores

0:0
21%
0:1
16%
1:1
15%
1:0
13%
0:2
8%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Platense: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
  2. Argentinos Juniors: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
  3. Platense: 4 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
  4. Platense: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 10 total)
  5. Platense: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)

Lineups

Platense 4-2-3-1 · Argentinos Juniors 4-3-3

Platense
  • 30 J. Cozzani
  • 4 A. Lagos
  • 34 M. Mendia
  • 31 V. Cuesta
  • 3 T. Silva
  • 15 F. Amarfil
  • 24 M. Barrios Santos
  • 7 G. Mainero
  • 18 B. Merlini
  • 43 N. Retamar
  • 79 B. SepĂșlveda
Argentinos Juniors
  • 25 B. CortĂ©s FernĂĄndez
  • 17 F. Paredes
  • 16 F. Álvarez
  • 6 F. VĂĄzquez
  • 20 S. Prieto
  • 5 Facundo Carrizo
  • 15 K. GutiĂ©rrez
  • 11 N. Oroz
  • 7 D. Rodrigo Porcel
  • 27 T. Molina
  • 9 G. VerĂłn
Substitutes
  • 33 J. Gauto
  • 22 N. Sumavil
  • 17 F. Bussio
  • 21 A. Lotti
  • 99 G. Lencina
  • 29 F. Minerva
  • 10 F. Zapiola
  • 5 I. GĂłmez
  • 6 E. Raggio
  • 8 F. LĂłpez
  • 16 G. Togni
  • 11 N. LĂłpez Alonso
  • 48 F. Jainikoski
  • 22 K. Coronel AlarcĂłn
  • 19 M. GimĂ©nez Rojas
  • 12 G. Siri Payer
  • 32 G. Infantino
  • 10 C. FlorentĂ­n
  • 26 C. Bravo
  • 8 H. LĂłpez Muñoz
  • 4 E. Godoy
  • 18 F. Mancuello
  • 35 A. Alcaraz
  • 23 M. Mendoza

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