Match report â
San Lorenzo â Deportivo Riestra1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
San Lorenzo
1.01
Total xG
1.94
Deportivo Riestra
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | San Lorenzo | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | â0.34 | â0.34 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | â0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 0.9 season average) | â0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | â0.08 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | â0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | â0.03 | |
| Strong home record (1.2 vs 0.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Away weakness: Deportivo Riestra concede an average of 2.17 goals per away match
- Tactical profile: San Lorenzo averaged 2.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Deportivo Riestra's average of 3.8
- Model prediction: The calculation model foresees a tight game with a 35% probability for a draw and 35% for a home win
Risks
- Vulnerable away defense: Deportivo Riestra concede 2.17 goals per away match
- Low attacking output: San Lorenzo averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Home team form slump: San Lorenzo suffered 3 losses in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
San Lorenzo35%
Draw35%
Deportivo Riestra30%
Goals
Over 1.559%
Under 1.541%
Over 2.531%
Under 2.569%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Double chance
San Lorenzo or draw70%
Deportivo Riestra or draw65%
No draw65%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
0:0
16%
1:1
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
12%
2:0
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- San Lorenzo: scored only after the break in 4 of 12 games
Lineups
San Lorenzo 3-4-1-2 · Deportivo Riestra 5-3-2
San Lorenzo
- 25 J. Devecchi
- 35 A. Cordoba
- 2 D. Arboleda Hurtado
- 19 E. Amor
- 24 N. Tripichio
- 62 G. Alassia
- 10 F. Gulli
- 3 T. RodrĂguez Pagano
- 38 F. FarĂas
- 29 R. Auzmendi
- 9 A. Cuello
Deportivo Riestra
- 1 I. Arce
- 36 M. Bracamonte
- 5 P. RamĂrez
- 22 C. Paz
- 19 J. Randazzo
- 15 N. Sansotre
- 8 M. CĂ©liz
- 14 P. Monje
- 10 B. SĂĄnchez
- 11 A. DĂaz
- 7 A. Alonso Espinoza
Substitutes
- 27 M. RĂo
- 32 E. Herrera
- 6 M. De Ritis Serrentino
- 42 F. LorenzĂłn
- 14 A. Ladstatter
- 13 J. Rattalino
- 20 F. Altamirano
- 36 D. Herrera
- 21 G. Del Prete
- 39 U. Ojeda
- 44 E. Salas
- 21 T. GonzĂĄlez
- 2 C. Quintana
- 16 N. Watson
- 40 G. Obredor
- 27 J. GoitĂa
- 13 R. Gallo
- 9 G. Benegas
- 6 I. Gariglio
- 20 T. Lauro
- 23 M. Arzamendia Espinoza
- 29 M. Graneros
- 17 ?. Almada
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